India-US Trade Deal: Surplus Could Cross $90 BILLION as Exports Surge, Says SBI Report

India’s trade surplus with the United States could exceed $90 billion annually, driven by a sharp rise in exports and expanded market access following recent tariff reductions, according to a new report by the State Bank of India (SBI). The report estimates that Indian exporters could increase shipments of their top 15 export items to the US by nearly $97 billion per year, potentially pushing total exports to the US beyond the $100 billion mark annually.“India’s trade surplus with the US may thus cross USD 90 billion annually. As per our preliminary estimates, Indian exporters may increase their exports of the top 15 items to the US by approximately USD 97 billion in a year,” the report stated.The easing of tariffs is expected to open new opportunities

for Indian companies to capture a larger share of the US market.India’s trade surplus with the US has already been expanding. It stood at $40.9 billion in FY25 and $26 billion in FY26 (April–December). With the additional export momentum, the surplus could climb beyond $90 billion annually, potentially adding 1.1% to India’s GDP, the report noted.Currently, the US accounts for around 20% of India’s total exports, but only about 7% of its imports. In services imports, the US share is just 15%, indicating that India remains a relatively underpenetrated market for American goods and services.On the import front, India has committed to purchasing $500 billion worth of US goods over the next five years. The US could export more than $50 billion worth of goods annually to India, excluding services. Imports may rise by about $55 billion as India reduces or eliminates tariffs on US industrial and agricultural products.Several US products already command a significant share of Indian imports—between 20% and 40% in some categories. For example, the US supplies nearly 90% of India’s almond imports. Lower tariffs could help India save $100–150 million in foreign exchange on such items alone.Overall, total foreign exchange savings from reduced or zero import duties could reach $3 billion, with additional gains possible through import substitution.The report suggests that the evolving trade framework between the two countries could significantly reshape bilateral trade flows, strengthening India’s export performance while expanding US access to the Indian market.