Bab el-Mandeb Threat: How The Strait's Closure Could Hit India's Trade - Explained

'The Resistance Front' could target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world’s trade typically passes, warned Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and adviser to the Iran's supreme leader. The warning has raised fresh concerns as crucial global shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, remains strained by the ongoing Iran war. Earlier, the Iran-backed Houthis had hinted they may attack ships in the Bab el-Mandeb if the war escalates. The closure of the Strait could further disrupt global trade, blocking yet another chokepoint for the petroleum exporting nations to ship oil and natural gas out of the region."If the White House thinks of repeating its stupid mistakes, it will quickly realise that the flow

of global energy and trade can be disrupted with a single signal,” Ali Akbar Velayati said on social media, signalling possible closure of the vital waterway if the US escalates attacks.Iran leads the so-called 'Axis of Resistance,' which includes armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, where Houthi rebels had in the past cut off transit through Bab el-Mandeb with attacks on vessels.

What is Bab el-Mandeb?

The Bab el-Mandeb, Arabic for "Gate of Tears", is a narrow strait that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. It forms a vital trade route between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. Around 12 per cent of total seaborne-traded oil passes through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, according to the US Energy Information Agency.The Strait is 29 kilometres (18 miles) across at its narrowest point – making huge container vessels particularly vulnerable to attack.Read More - Gate of Tears: Why Bab el-Mandeb Could Emerge as the Next Global Chokepoint After Strait of Hormuz

How Bab el-Mandeb's Closure Will Impact India?

The narrow waterway is vital for trade between Asia, Europe and beyond—prompting questions about how any disruption could affect India’s energy supplies and maritime trade.The Bab el-Mandeb Strait allows ships travelling between Asia and Europe to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has been sending millions of barrels of crude oil a day through the Bab el-Mandeb following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively came down since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28, leading to higher oil and gas prices globally. According to Tehran, the Strait is closed for its "enemies" - the US and its allies.The possible closure of the Bab el-Mandeb may impact India's trade with Europe and West Asia. A significant portion of India’s exports to Europe — including engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and chemicals — moves through the Suez–Red Sea corridor via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to a TOI report. Europe, which relies heavily on imported energy, would be particularly exposed if the Strait is closed as 80% of India's exports to Europe transit via the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb route, according to an Indian Express Report. Furthermore, the Red Sea Route handles 50% of India's exports to Europe and North Africa, plus 30% of imports from these regions, as per CRISIL Ratings 2022-23 data. Any disruption in the shipping route could cast a shadow here as well.

Can Iran Block Bab el-Mandeb Strait?

While Iran does not border the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen does, and Iran is closely allied with the Houthis, the Yemeni rebel group that previously conducted dozens of strikes against Israel-linked vessels in the Red Sea in 2023 and 2024 in response to Israel's war in Gaza.Iran or the Houthis do not need a full-scale naval blockade to shut the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Even a small number of anti-ship missile strikes, drone attacks or the deployment of a few naval mines can make the narrow shipping lanes too risky for commercial vessels, forcing traffic to halt almost immediately. In such confined waters, the mere threat of attack can be as powerful as actual strikes."All they have to do is fire at a couple of ships coming through. And that would lead to the arrest of all commercial shipping through the Red Sea," Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat, told Al Jazeera.