US-Iran ceasefire fragile, deep distrust could derail talks: Former foreign secretary

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran remains fragile and could unravel amid deep mistrust and internal divisions on both sides, former foreign secretary Shashank told CNBC-TV18, even as global markets rallied and crude oil prices eased following the truce.

“The good thing is that there is a ceasefire… but it is a fragile peace because Iranian leadership is divided in its opinion about trusting the Americans, and American leadership is divided about trusting the Iranians,” Shashank said, warning that the lack of trust could derail negotiations.

The ceasefire, announced after 39 days of conflict and just ahead of US President Donald Trump’s deadline for military escalation, has been accompanied by a sharp easing in oil prices and a rebound in global equities. Both sides have claimed victory, while Pakistan has been credited with facilitating the talks, with further negotiations expected in Islamabad.

However, uncertainty persists over the scope of the truce, particularly with Israel indicating that operations in Lebanon may continue, raising concerns about whether Iranian proxies are covered under the agreement.

Javad Rad, Assistant Professor of Politics at the University of Bojnurd, said Tehran agreed to talks not out of weakness but after sustaining a prolonged resistance. “Iranians have always been open to negotiations, provided that they are meaningful and directed towards a lasting peace,” he said, adding that the strategy was to extend the conflict into a “war of attrition” until conditions were favourable for dialogue.

Rad noted that despite agreeing to a ceasefire, concerns remain high in Iran over the outcome of the two-week negotiation window.

Sanjeev P. Yadav said the apparent shift in Washington’s stance should not be seen as a reversal but as part of a broader strategic play. “It has been a coordinated, classic President Trump-controlled pressure campaign… a maximum pressure campaign that has moved up and down in terms of the levers applied,” he said.

Yadav pointed to a combination of military escalation, diplomatic signalling and economic threats as tools used to bring Tehran to the table. He also highlighted China’s role as a “silent figure behind the scenes” influencing the trajectory of the negotiations.

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While the ceasefire terms include discussions around Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes, sanctions relief and control over the Strait of Hormuz, tensions remain elevated on the ground. Reports of continued drone and missile activity across parts of the Middle East underline the fragility of the truce.

With negotiations set to intensify in the coming days, experts say the focus will shift to reconciling the US’s 15-point proposal with Iran’s 10-point plan, which has now emerged as the basis for talks. However, as Shashank cautioned, the deep trust deficit on both sides means the path to a durable agreement remains uncertain.