US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariff gloom spreads

US manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods.

Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey on Monday painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which ironically President Donald Trump's sweeping duties are intended to stimulate.

Economists have long argued it was impossible to restore manufacturing to its former glory because of structural issues, including worker shortages.

Some makers of computer and electronic products agreed, and noted last month that "the cost to import in many cases is still more attractive than sourcing within the US". The ISM added to the gloom from other advanced nations' factory surveys.

"Tariffs have been roiling the sector for much of this year," said Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets. "The comments from individual respondents suggest that firms are exhausted by all of the back and forth on tariffs since the beginning of April and are suffering mightily as their customers have pulled back significantly."

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 last month from 49.1 in September. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy.

The PMI remained above 42.3, a level that the ISM said over time was consistent with an expansion of the overall economy.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PMI rising to 49.5. Six industries including primary metals, transportation equipment and fabricated metal products reported growth. Among the 12 industries that contracted were textile mills, wood and chemical products as well as electrical equipment, appliances and components, machinery, and computer and electronic products.

Some makers of chemical products said business remained "difficult as customers are cancelling and reducing orders due to uncertainty in the global economic environment and regarding the ever-changing tariff landscape." Others said "wonder has turned to concern regarding how the tariff threats are affecting our business," adding that "orders are down across most divisions."

Machinery manufacturers complained about tariffs, noting "the products we import are not readily manufactured in the US, so attempts to reshore have been unsuccessful."

Others said the Trump administration's trade war had hurt agricultural exports, and impacted farmers' finances and their ability to buy new equipment.

China stopped buying American soybeans amid Washington's trade war with Beijing. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had committed to purchase 12 million metric tons during the current season through January, down from 22.5 million tons in the prior season.

Tariffs are constraining production at factories

The US Supreme Court, on Wednesday will hear arguments on the legality of Trump's import duties. Trump has defended the tariffs as necessary to protect domestic manufacturing.

The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index rose to a still-depressed 49.4 last month from 48.9 in September. This measure has contracted in eight of the last nine months.

"For every positive comment about new orders, there were 1.7 comments expressing concern about near-term demand, driven primarily by tariff costs and uncertainty," said Susan Spence, chair of the ISM manufacturing business survey committee.

A month-long shutdown of the US government is making it difficult to get a good read of the economy. The shutdown, on track to be the longest on record, has caused a government economic data blackout.

Prior to the shutdown, the economy appeared to be on solid footing for much of the third quarter, spurred by consumer spending and to some extent business investment in artificial intelligence. But the shutdown could undercut consumer spending as food aid for nearly 42 million people lapsed on Saturday.

Consumer spending is mostly being driven by high-income households, who are the biggest beneficiaries of a stock market rally, economists said.

Backlog orders remained subdued last month as did export orders. Production was weak after briefly rebounding in September. Tariffs are gumming up supply chains, resulting in longer delivery times to factories. The ISM survey's supplier deliveries index increased to 54.2 from 52.6 in September. A reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries.

Manufacturers of transportation equipment said "US trade policy and reciprocal actions by China in the form of export controls on rare earths and semiconductors, as well as ocean freight carrier restrictions, have once again caused a lot of stress in supply lines."

Factories continued to pay more for inputs, though the pace of price increases moderated. The survey's prices paid measure eased to a still-high 58.0 from 61.9 in the prior month. That would support some economists' views that the hit to inflation from tariffs could be a one-time boost to the price level.

Factory employment remained weak, with the ISM noting that manufacturers continued to lay off workers and leave open positions unfilled to manage headcount.

"There have been a lot of deals made with countries committing hundreds of billions of investment in the US, but these plants can take several years to get set up," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "Workers will have to wait a while longer to join the assembly line, because there are no good jobs out there yet."