Tariffs, AI emerge as top threats to global business: WEF

Rising trade barriers and the unintended consequences of Artificial Intelligence (AI) have emerged as the biggest threats facing global businesses, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026.

The report, based on a survey of more than 1,300 leaders from business, government and civil society, paints a sharply pessimistic picture of the near-term outlook. Around 50% of respondents expect the world to face turbulent or stormy conditions over the next two years, while just 1% anticipate a calm global environment.

Geoeconomic confrontation tops the near-term risk list. The WEF defines this as the increasing use of economic tools such as tariffs, sanctions, regulations, supply-chain controls and capital restrictions to pursue geopolitical goals. The report warns that this shift towards economic rivalry could significantly disrupt global trade and investment, adding to uncertainty for companies operating across borders.

Economic risks more broadly have seen the sharpest rise in concern compared with last year. The report highlights growing fears of an economic downturn, persistent inflation, and potential asset bubbles, particularly in countries already burdened with high debt and volatile markets. These pressures, the WEF notes, could quickly spill over into social and political instability.

Technology-related risks are also climbing fast. The potential for adverse outcomes from AI has surged higher than any other risk in the survey. While it ranks relatively low in the short-term outlook, it breaks into the top five risks over the next decade. The report flags concerns around labour displacement, widening income inequality and gaps in governance as AI adoption accelerates.

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Inequality remains a central concern and is identified as the most interconnected global risk. According to the WEF, it amplifies several other challenges, including societal polarisation, economic fragility, and declining trust in institutions. Misinformation and disinformation also rank among the top near-term risks, further complicating efforts to respond effectively to crises.

Environmental risks, while still severe, have been pushed lower in the short-term rankings as leaders focus on geopolitical and economic pressures. However, over a ten-year horizon, climate-related threats dominate the risk landscape once again. Extreme weather events are ranked as the most severe long-term risk, followed by biodiversity loss and critical changes to Earth systems.

Looking ahead, the report finds that most leaders expect a more fragmented global order. Nearly seven in ten respondents anticipate a multipolar world with weaker cooperation frameworks, raising questions about the ability of countries to work together on shared challenges such as climate change, economic shocks and future pandemics.

The Global Risks Report 2026 concludes that businesses are entering a period where risks are becoming more interconnected and harder to manage just as global cooperation is under strain.