Guinea votes in presidential election expected to cement Doumbouya's rule

Guinea votes on Sunday in a presidential election widely expected to hand Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in a 2021 coup, a seven-year mandate, completing the West African nation’s transition back to civilian rule.

The former special forces commander, believed to be in his early 40s, faces eight other candidates in a fragmented field with no strong challenger. Ousted president Alpha Conde and longtime opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo remain in exile.

Guinea holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and the richest untapped iron ore deposit at Simandou, officially launched last month after years of delay.

Doumbouya has claimed credit for pushing the project forward and ensuring Guinea benefits from its output.

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His government this year also revoked EGA subsidiary Guinea Alumina Corporation’s license after a refinery dispute, transferring its assets to a state-owned firm.

The turn toward resource nationalism – echoed in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – has boosted his popularity, as has his youth in a country where the median age is about 19.

”For us young people, Doumbouya represents the opportunity to send the old political class into retirement,” said Mohamed Kaba, a mechanic in Conakry. ”There is a lot of corruption right now, but I hope these things will be sorted out.”

If elected, Doumbouya "will likely utilise his position to further entrench his power and that of the military over Guinea,” said Benedict Manzin, lead Middle East and Africa analyst at risk consultancy Sibylline.

”In particular he is likely to position his allies and associates to benefit from the expected economic boom associated with the launch of production” at Simandou, Manzin added.

A transition charter adopted after the coup barred junta members from contesting elections. But in September, Guineans overwhelmingly backed a new constitution removing that clause, extending presidential terms to seven years and creating a Senate.

Provisional results showed turnout at 86.42%, though opposition figures disputed that.

Political debate has been muted under Doumbouya. Civil society groups accuse his government of banning protests, curbing press freedom and restricting opposition activity.

The campaign period ”has been severely restricted, marked by intimidation of opposition actors, apparently politically motivated enforced disappearances, and constraints on media freedom,” U.N. rights chief Volker Turk said Friday. These conditions ”risk undermining the credibility of the electoral process,” he added.

The government did not respond to a request for comment.

Doumbouya kept a low profile during the campaign, leaving surrogates to make his case.

At a closing rally on Thursday in Conakry, he skipped a speech although he danced with his wife while Congolese star Koffi Olomide performed.

He wore a white baseball cap and track jacket emblazoned with the name of his movement: "Generation for Modernity and Development.”

About 6.7 million people are registered to vote, with provisional results expected within 48 to 72 hours of polls closing.