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What is the story about?
Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. is now the world’s best-performing electric-vehicle stock, following a torrid rally fueled by optimism about the reinvention of a combustion engine-era brand.
The Chinese automaker’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged more than 50% since the Iran war began, to their highest in over four years and topping an 81-member global gauge tracking EV-linked firms. Arch-rival BYD Co.’s shares have risen around 7% in the same period, when the oil shock has helped drive an EV sales boom.
The rally has come on the back of Geely’s strong sales momentum and record earnings, positioning itself as a serious challenger to BYD, China’s top EV manufacturer. The rapid ascent of the Hangzhou-based firm underscores the fast-changing landscape in the world’s largest auto market, where overcapacity and waning demand have led to cut-throat competition and a dizzying pace of innovation.
With Geely now targeting EV-led global expansion, some investors say there’s room for the stock to carry a higher valuation premium, particularly if the company can attract international funds that have long overlooked legacy car-makers.
“While BYD leads on scale, Geely competes through wider brand segmentation and greater flexibility across technologies and price points,” said Gary Tan, a fund manager at Allspring Global Investments. “Its global footprint and early experience integrating foreign brands support export growth, even as BYD maintains volume leadership.”
Parent of Sweden’s Volvo Car AB, Geely is part of the auto empire founded by Chinese tycoon Li Shufu in 1986, which started by making refrigerator parts and motorcycles. For years, its shares had struggled to win investor interest, weighed down by heavy reliance on combustion models and concerns about corporate governance.
BYD became China’s top-selling automaker in 2023, propelled by its large lineup of EVs and hybrid cars. Geely was initially slow to match BYD’s offerings but has since launched a major overhaul that focused on brand consolidation and cost control.
The moves appear to be bearing fruit. After delivering record earnings and expanding its China market share last year, Geely beat BYD on sales during the first two months of 2026 before the latter resumed its lead in March.
Its exports have more than doubled each month so far in 2026, highlighting a strong global momentum. The company is aiming for sales to increase 14% this year as it pursues its goal to become one of the world’s top five car-makers by the end of the decade.
“We see a major overseas growth story for Geely as its exports shift toward electric vehicles,” said Luo Ding, analyst at CLSA Ltd., adding that Geely’s ability to move upmarket is a critical differentiator. “Different from some other auto makers, Geely is positioning itself more effectively in higher-end segments that drive both brand equity and margins.”
Geely’s transformation has prompted analysts to upgrade their assessments, with the consensus earnings-per-share estimates rising by about 35% over the past year. The stock also boasts the highest buy rating ratio among Chinese EV firms at 98%, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
The company’s shares gained as much as 3% Friday amid broader market strength in Asia.
To be sure, technical indicators suggest that the stock rally is starting to look a bit overheated. Its 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 82, above the threshold of 70 that suggests shares are overbought.
However, Geely’s still-attractive valuations provide room for further upside, analysts say. The stock trades at 10.7 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 12.9 times. In contrast, BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares trade at 17.4 times.
“At the company level, near-term catalysts include a potential inflection point in Zeekr’s profitability and sustained overseas volume growth,” said Allspring’s Tan, referring to its premium EV brand. “At the macro level, clearer policy support for the domestic auto sector could further support the stock.”
The Chinese automaker’s Hong Kong-listed shares have surged more than 50% since the Iran war began, to their highest in over four years and topping an 81-member global gauge tracking EV-linked firms. Arch-rival BYD Co.’s shares have risen around 7% in the same period, when the oil shock has helped drive an EV sales boom.
The rally has come on the back of Geely’s strong sales momentum and record earnings, positioning itself as a serious challenger to BYD, China’s top EV manufacturer. The rapid ascent of the Hangzhou-based firm underscores the fast-changing landscape in the world’s largest auto market, where overcapacity and waning demand have led to cut-throat competition and a dizzying pace of innovation.
With Geely now targeting EV-led global expansion, some investors say there’s room for the stock to carry a higher valuation premium, particularly if the company can attract international funds that have long overlooked legacy car-makers.
“While BYD leads on scale, Geely competes through wider brand segmentation and greater flexibility across technologies and price points,” said Gary Tan, a fund manager at Allspring Global Investments. “Its global footprint and early experience integrating foreign brands support export growth, even as BYD maintains volume leadership.”
Parent of Sweden’s Volvo Car AB, Geely is part of the auto empire founded by Chinese tycoon Li Shufu in 1986, which started by making refrigerator parts and motorcycles. For years, its shares had struggled to win investor interest, weighed down by heavy reliance on combustion models and concerns about corporate governance.
BYD became China’s top-selling automaker in 2023, propelled by its large lineup of EVs and hybrid cars. Geely was initially slow to match BYD’s offerings but has since launched a major overhaul that focused on brand consolidation and cost control.
The moves appear to be bearing fruit. After delivering record earnings and expanding its China market share last year, Geely beat BYD on sales during the first two months of 2026 before the latter resumed its lead in March.
Its exports have more than doubled each month so far in 2026, highlighting a strong global momentum. The company is aiming for sales to increase 14% this year as it pursues its goal to become one of the world’s top five car-makers by the end of the decade.
“We see a major overseas growth story for Geely as its exports shift toward electric vehicles,” said Luo Ding, analyst at CLSA Ltd., adding that Geely’s ability to move upmarket is a critical differentiator. “Different from some other auto makers, Geely is positioning itself more effectively in higher-end segments that drive both brand equity and margins.”
Geely’s transformation has prompted analysts to upgrade their assessments, with the consensus earnings-per-share estimates rising by about 35% over the past year. The stock also boasts the highest buy rating ratio among Chinese EV firms at 98%, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
The company’s shares gained as much as 3% Friday amid broader market strength in Asia.
To be sure, technical indicators suggest that the stock rally is starting to look a bit overheated. Its 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 82, above the threshold of 70 that suggests shares are overbought.
However, Geely’s still-attractive valuations provide room for further upside, analysts say. The stock trades at 10.7 times forward earnings, below its five-year average of 12.9 times. In contrast, BYD’s Hong Kong-listed shares trade at 17.4 times.
“At the company level, near-term catalysts include a potential inflection point in Zeekr’s profitability and sustained overseas volume growth,” said Allspring’s Tan, referring to its premium EV brand. “At the macro level, clearer policy support for the domestic auto sector could further support the stock.”
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