West Asia war: Conflict may end by April, but short-term escalation likely, says former diplomat

The West Asia conflict could see a sharp but short-lived escalation before ending within April, former diplomat Ajay Bisaria said, interpreting US President Donald Trump’s latest address as a signal of an impending endgame strategy.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Bisaria said the speech marked a shift in Washington’s objectives. “The goalposts have been retrospectively changed… it is only about dealing a decisive or final blow,” he noted, adding that the timeline indicated things may “get worse before it gets better.” He expects “an escalation of operations… followed by a declaration of victory and a ceasefire,” with the conflict unlikely to extend beyond April.

His comments come after Trump’s 20-minute address, where he claimed US objectives in Iran were near completion, even as he warned of severe retaliation if a deal was not reached. The speech, aimed at shoring up domestic support amid falling approval ratings, reiterated earlier positions while signalling a narrower military objective.

Bisaria said Washington is likely attempting to project the conflict as a limited engagement. “The attempt is to tell them that this will be an in-and-out operation; it will not be a quagmire,” he said, while cautioning that risks of miscalculation and an escalation spiral remain. He added that rising fuel prices in the US are also exerting pressure on the administration to limit the duration of the conflict.

From an energy market perspective, Ali Al-Riyami, former Oman Energy Ministry official, said the war has already triggered a global crisis, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude has climbed above the $100 per barrel mark amid the tensions.

Riyami pushed back against Trump’s suggestion that the US is less dependent on Gulf oil, pointing to a supply-demand gap. “The United States is currently producing about 13.5 million barrels per day, while its consumption is about 20 million barrels… it still needs to import about 6 to 7 million barrels per day,” he said, calling claims of self-sufficiency misleading.

He also downplayed the possibility of alternative supply sources like Venezuela filling the gap in the near term, noting that ramping up production there would take years and significant investment. Instead, Riyami stressed that ensuring the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains critical for both global markets and US interests.

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“The real solution is that the US remains interested in ensuring that exports from the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz remain open,” he said, adding that any long-term resolution would require “new arrangements” that could be negotiated through international platforms such as the United Nations rather than through military escalation.

While both experts flagged the likelihood of near-term military action, they converged on the view that a prolonged conflict is unlikely. Bisaria said the US may be caught in a “commitment trap,” forcing a brief escalation alongside Israel before a quick exit, while Riyami emphasised the need for post-war frameworks to stabilise energy flows and avoid future disruptions.