Russia now supplies 52% of India’s crude oil imports; GTRI warns against rapid cuts

With Russia now supplying over half of India’s crude oil imports, the Global Trade Research Institute (GTRI) has said that "rapid reduction in Russian purchases could increase India’s import bill, disrupt refinery operations, widen the trade deficit and add to domestic inflation", and "could also leave India more exposed to instability in West Asia."

GTRI's Founder Ajay Srivastava said that the dependence also limits India’s ability to reduce Russian purchases at short notice despite the threat of US tariffs. He noted that Russia supplied an estimated 52% of India’s crude oil imports in July 2026, up from 48.6% in June, according to an analysis by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

Pointing to detailed country-wise trade data available up to June 2026, Srivastava said that India imported $14.8 billion of crude oil globally in the month, including $7.2 billion from Russia. Russia’s share was therefore 48.6%.

He highlighted that for July, the "government has disclosed that India’s total imports from Russia reached $8.9 billion but has not provided the value of crude oil within that figure." In June, crude accounted for 82% of India’s total imports from Russia. Srivastava projected that "Applying the same ratio to July puts India’s Russian crude imports at approximately $7.3 billion," adding that "India’s total crude imports for July also had to be estimated because the government has reported only the combined value of crude oil and petroleum-product imports."

 

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Stating that crude oil represented 76.3% of this combined category in June 2026, he projected that "applying that ratio to July suggests that India imported about $14 billion of crude globally."

On the same basis, he pegged Russia's supply at "an estimated $7.3 billion of India’s total crude imports of $14 billion-equivalent to approximately 52%," noting that "these estimates should be updated when detailed country- and product-wise trade data for July become available."

Russia’s share of India’s crude imports has increased from about 15% in 2022 to 30.3% in FY 2025–26 and 48.6% in June 2026. Over the same period, the combined share of Gulf suppliers fell from more than 55% in 2022 to below 30% in June 2026. The Iran war and related supply-chain disruptions have accelerated this change.

 

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India could face additional US tariffs of up to 100% if the proposed Russia sanctions legislation is approved by the US Congress and applied to countries that continue purchasing Russian energy. The measure could force India to choose between reducing its Russian oil purchases and protecting its exports to the US.

Advocating continued buying of Russian oil "as long as it remains commercially attractive and complies with applicable rules", GTRI noted that "American tariff threats should not determine India’s energy policy", adding that "differences with Washington should be addressed through firm negotiations, not unilateral concessions that raise India’s energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy."