Delays, setbacks loom over President Trump's Golden Dome missile shield

President Donald Trump’s Golden Dome missile defence initiative is facing significant delays, hampered by the 43-day government shutdown and lack of a clear plan to spend the first $25 billion appropriated for the program this summer, eight sources familiar with the situation told Reuters.

The shutdown delayed hiring and pulled crucial personnel away from their normal duties of approving and signing contracts, according to three industry sources and a US official, who, along with other sources, spoke with Reuters on condition of anonymity, fearing reprisals for talking to the press about a program where many aspects are classified as secret.

More critically, the nearly $25 billion earmarked for Golden Dome as part of the budget reconciliation package approved this summer has not been turned into a spending plan that details exactly how the money will be allocated, two sources from the administration, along with a source on Capitol Hill and two of the industry executives told Reuters.

The setbacks threaten Trump’s promise that the $175 billion program, unveiled on the seventh day of his new administration, will be in place to protect the continental United States by 2028.

"I don’t think they have made a lot of progress, but I don’t think it’s going horribly," one of the US officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Reuters spoke to over a dozen sources from within the administration, the Pentagon, Capitol Hill and in the defence industry to piece together a picture of the headwinds facing Golden Dome, Trump’s signature national defence priority.

A spending plan outlined in the bill funding the Golden Dome was due to Congress in late August. That plan is now expected to be delivered by Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg in December, two sources on Capitol Hill told Reuters.

Delays in defence contracting are routine, but because of Trump’s short timeline, they have taken on added significance for Golden Dome. Those delays have led some in the defence industry to express fear that key Golden Dome contracts will not be issued by the Pentagon’s internal deadline of December 31. Such a delay could potentially drive up costs, according to four defence industry executives who are planning to bid on aspects of the program.

"The Golden Dome is a visionary project led by a visionary President," a White House spokesperson said. "It shouldn’t surprise anyone that it takes hard work to create such a system, and everyone is working well together to put pen to paper and deliver this next-generational technology."

A Pentagon spokesperson said it is closely guarding the progress it is making on Golden Dome. "Recognising adversaries’ intent to exploit Golden Dome’s breakthroughs, we are rigorously protecting America’s strategic advantages inherent in this program."

Feinberg and Golden Dome program manager General Michael Guetlein declined to comment.

Golden Dome Struggles To Meet Aggressive Timeline 

Guetlein met a mid-November deadline to present an implementation plan for the system, and that plan is under review, the Pentagon told Reuters. From that blueprint, the Pentagon plans to begin awarding contracts for companies to test and build satellites, interceptors, ground stations and networking infrastructure.

But sources inside the administration told Reuters the architecture for the plan proposed in September remains in flux, and won't be finalised for several more weeks. A Pentagon spokesperson told Reuters,"the baseline architecture has been established" but did not give further details.

Without the final architecture, implementation plan or an approved spending plan, Guetlein has been unable to put programs up for contract, effectively freezing the initiative’s ability to move from planning to rapid execution, one US official and three industry executives said.

The delays have fueled industry concerns that Golden Dome will need a much larger budget and longer timeline. Todd Harrison, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank, estimated in September the cost of a "robust, all-threat" missile defence system at $3.6 trillion over 20 years.

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Guetlein is scrambling to staff up the Pentagon’s Golden Dome office and still has not met the internal headcount goal of 30 staffers. The program has also lost a key technical director from the US Space Command working on the project’s architecture, said one administration official and three industry executives familiar with the program.

A new staff member to fill the position has been identified, two of the people said.

Guetlein has managed to mobilise a workforce of contractors, establish internal systems and hire a small team within the Pentagon in addition to borrowing missile defence experts from various facilities like the rocket development centre at Redstone Arsenal outside Huntsville, Alabama, an administration official and three industry executives said.

Tom Karako, a weapons security expert at the Washington-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the point of having a four-star general like Guetlein in charge is that "he can break glass and get things done."

"As long as there is indecision about every little thing at still higher levels, none of this is ever going to get started," he said.

Contractors Baulk at Development Costs 

But Golden Dome’s challenges don’t end with the bureaucratic delays. Potential contractors have baulked at the upfront costs they will have to shoulder to develop the Space-Based Interceptors, a network of satellites that would carry missiles to intercept a threat from launch to just before impact, multiple defence industry sources said.

One of the executives at a top defence contractor told Reuters they are unlikely to compete to build the interceptors because of the costs of the years-long competition and the possibility that the next administration will abandon the program.

The development costs for the interceptors are expected to be borne by the companies competing for the award, according to documents seen by Reuters. Typically, this type of risky research funding is partly shouldered by the federal government.

Contractors are being asked to develop four different versions of the interceptors, according to the documents: two versions that can intercept missiles at different altitudes of the boost phase, one version during mid-flight, and another to counter faster-moving hypersonic missiles.

The government envisions groups of as many as five companies competing for different interceptor types. Within each competition group, there are "prize pools." The largest pool for $340 million would be split among companies that complete an "on orbit" test, with first place receiving $125 million and fifth place, $40 million, according to a Pentagon presentation to industry viewed by Reuters.

Ultimately, companies could win lucrative production contracts worth $1.8 billion to $3.4 billion annually, the Pentagon said in its presentation. But industry executives estimate it might cost $200 million to $2 billion to build and test a space-based interceptor.

Major defence contractors, including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX and Boeing, are expected to compete for various components of Golden Dome once blanket contracts can actually be awarded.

Some things are going right. The Department of Defense is making progress centralising early-warning systems maintained by disparate government spy agencies intended to defend against ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced cruise missiles, according to two industry sources and two US officials.

Those systems involve hacking into enemy systems, gathering information from satellites and intelligence on the ground and feeding that simultaneously to Golden Dome, greatly aiding preparations to shoot missiles down.

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