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What is the story about?
Global oil demand growth is expected to remain subdued in 2026 before accelerating sharply next year, according to OPEC's latest Monthly Oil Market Report.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects global oil demand to grow by 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, a slight downward revision from its previous forecast.
Demand in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is expected to decline by about 40,000 barrels a day, while demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day.
For 2027, OPEC raised its global oil demand growth forecast to about 2.2 million barrels a day. OECD demand is expected to increase by about 300,000 barrels a day, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by around 1.8 million barrels a day.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40 tb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d.#OPECMOMR pic.twitter.com/tiSpC62Cn4
Oil supply growth
Liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is expected to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from OPEC's previous assessment.
Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to be the main drivers of supply growth in 2026. Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are expected to lead growth in 2027.
Natural-gas liquids and non-conventional liquids production from DoC participating countries is forecast to rise by about 100,000 barrels a day in 2026 to average 8.8 million barrels a day. A further increase of about 100,000 barrels a day is expected in 2027, taking average production to 8.9 million barrels a day.
Crude-oil production by DoC participating countries increased by 1.42 million barrels a day from the previous month in July to average about 37.66 million barrels a day, according to secondary sources cited by OPEC.
Tanker rates remain elevated
Tanker freight rates were mixed in July, with rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) declining but remaining well above year-ago levels amid disruptions to global trade flows.
VLCC rates on the West Africa-to-East route declined 3% from June but remained 188% higher than a year earlier.
Suezmax and Aframax tanker rates, meanwhile, increased across monitored routes. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route rose 28% from the previous month, while Aframax rates on the Cross-Mediterranean route surged 60%.
OPEC attributed the increases to tight vessel availability in the US Gulf Coast and Mediterranean markets.
India's crude imports decline
India's crude-oil imports declined in June, broadly in line with seasonal trends following strong inflows in the previous month. Imports averaged 4.8 million barrels a day.
Low imports of LPG and fuel oil continued to weigh on India's overall petroleum-product imports. Product exports, meanwhile, rose 5%, as higher gasoline and fuel-oil shipments offset declines in diesel and naphtha exports.
India's oil demand fell by about 200,000 barrels a day from a year earlier in June, an improvement from the roughly 300,000-barrel-a-day year-on-year decline recorded in May.
OPEC attributed the June decline to subdued demand for petrochemical feedstocks and bitumen amid supply constraints caused by disruptions in global oil markets.
Despite the recent weakness, OPEC expects India's oil demand to grow by about 100,000 barrels a day in 2026 to average 5.7 million barrels a day.
China's crude imports also declined further in June to 7.1 million barrels a day as refiners continued to limit refinery runs.
Japan's crude imports, meanwhile, rebounded to their five-year average of 2.1 million barrels a day, supported by renewed supplies from West Asia.
Also Read: India's dependence on Russian oil makes US tariff threat harder to navigate, say experts
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries expects global oil demand to grow by 600,000 barrels a day in 2026, a slight downward revision from its previous forecast.
Demand in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is expected to decline by about 40,000 barrels a day, while demand in non-OECD countries is projected to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day.
For 2027, OPEC raised its global oil demand growth forecast to about 2.2 million barrels a day. OECD demand is expected to increase by about 300,000 barrels a day, while non-OECD demand is projected to grow by around 1.8 million barrels a day.
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.6 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, following a slight downward revision from last month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to slightly decline by about 40 tb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d.#OPECMOMR pic.twitter.com/tiSpC62Cn4
— OPEC (@OPECSecretariat) August 12, 2026
Oil supply growth
Liquids production from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) is expected to increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from OPEC's previous assessment.
Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina are expected to be the main drivers of supply growth in 2026. Qatar, Canada, Brazil and Argentina are expected to lead growth in 2027.
Natural-gas liquids and non-conventional liquids production from DoC participating countries is forecast to rise by about 100,000 barrels a day in 2026 to average 8.8 million barrels a day. A further increase of about 100,000 barrels a day is expected in 2027, taking average production to 8.9 million barrels a day.
Crude-oil production by DoC participating countries increased by 1.42 million barrels a day from the previous month in July to average about 37.66 million barrels a day, according to secondary sources cited by OPEC.
Tanker rates remain elevated
Tanker freight rates were mixed in July, with rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) declining but remaining well above year-ago levels amid disruptions to global trade flows.
VLCC rates on the West Africa-to-East route declined 3% from June but remained 188% higher than a year earlier.
Suezmax and Aframax tanker rates, meanwhile, increased across monitored routes. Suezmax rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route rose 28% from the previous month, while Aframax rates on the Cross-Mediterranean route surged 60%.
OPEC attributed the increases to tight vessel availability in the US Gulf Coast and Mediterranean markets.
India's crude imports decline
India's crude-oil imports declined in June, broadly in line with seasonal trends following strong inflows in the previous month. Imports averaged 4.8 million barrels a day.
Low imports of LPG and fuel oil continued to weigh on India's overall petroleum-product imports. Product exports, meanwhile, rose 5%, as higher gasoline and fuel-oil shipments offset declines in diesel and naphtha exports.
India's oil demand fell by about 200,000 barrels a day from a year earlier in June, an improvement from the roughly 300,000-barrel-a-day year-on-year decline recorded in May.
OPEC attributed the June decline to subdued demand for petrochemical feedstocks and bitumen amid supply constraints caused by disruptions in global oil markets.
Despite the recent weakness, OPEC expects India's oil demand to grow by about 100,000 barrels a day in 2026 to average 5.7 million barrels a day.
China's crude imports also declined further in June to 7.1 million barrels a day as refiners continued to limit refinery runs.
Japan's crude imports, meanwhile, rebounded to their five-year average of 2.1 million barrels a day, supported by renewed supplies from West Asia.
Also Read: India's dependence on Russian oil makes US tariff threat harder to navigate, say experts
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