EU in last-minute talks to set new climate goal for COP30

EU climate ministers will make a last-ditch attempt to pass a new climate change target on Tuesday, in an effort to avoid going to the UN COP30 summit in Brazil empty-handed.

Failure to agree could undermine the European Union’s claims to leadership at the COP30 talks, which will test the will of major economies to keep fighting climate change despite opposition from US President Donald Trump.

Countries including China, Britain and Australia have already submitted new climate targets ahead of COP30.

But the EU, which has some of the world’s most ambitious CO2-cutting policies, has struggled to contain a backlash from industries and governments sceptical that it can afford the measures alongside defence and industrial priorities.

EU members failed to agree a 2040 climate target in September, leaving them scrambling for a deal days before European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets other world leaders at COP30 in Belem, Brazil, on November 6.

"The geopolitical landscape has rarely been more complex," EU climate policy chief Wopke Hoekstra told a gathering of climate ministers in Canada on Saturday, adding that he was confident the bloc would approve its new goal.

"The European Union will continue to do its utmost, even under these circumstances, in Belem to uphold its commitment to multilateralism and to the Paris Agreement," he said.

A more flexible EU target

The starting point for talks is a European Commission proposal to cut net EU greenhouse gas emissions by 90% from 1990 levels by 2040, to keep countries on track for net-zero by 2050.

Italy, Poland and the Czech Republic are among those warning this is too restrictive for domestic industries struggling with high energy costs, cheaper Chinese imports and U.S. tariffs.

Others, including the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden, cite worsening extreme weather and the need to catch up with China in manufacturing green technologies as reasons for ambitious goals.

The draft compromise ministers will discuss, seen by Reuters, includes a clause demanded by France allowing a weakening of the 2040 goal in future, if it becomes clear EU forests are not absorbing enough CO2 to meet it.

Brussels has also vowed to change other measures to attempt to win buy-in for the climate goal. These include controlling prices in an upcoming carbon market and considering weakening its 2035 combustion engine ban as requested by Germany.

A deal on Tuesday will require ministers to agree on the share of the 90% emissions cut countries can cover by buying foreign carbon credits – effectively softening efforts required by domestic industries.

France has said credits should cover 5%, more than the 3% share originally proposed by the Commission. Other governments argue money would be better spent on supporting European industries than buying foreign CO2 credits.

Support from at least 15 of the 27 EU members is needed to pass the goal. EU diplomats said on Monday the vote would be tight and could depend on one or two flipping positions.

Ministers will try first to agree the 2040 goal, and from that derive an emissions pledge for 2035 – which is what the UN asked countries to submit ahead of COP30.