US stands to gain most from AI, even as job risks grow over time: WEF Report

Artificial intelligence is fast becoming the defining macroeconomic force shaping global growth, jobs and productivity, according to the World Economic Forum’s latest Chief Economists’ Outlook, even as its benefits are expected to arrive unevenly across regions.

Two-thirds of chief economists surveyed expect modest job losses from AI over the next two years, reflecting early disruption as automation accelerates across sectors. However, views diverge sharply over the longer term. Over a 10-year horizon,

57% anticipate net job losses, while nearly one-third expect AI-driven job creation as new occupations emerge.

“The Chief Economists survey reveals three defining trends for 2026: surging AI investment and its implications for the global economy; debt approaching critical thresholds with unprecedented shifts in fiscal and monetary policies; and trade realignments,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum.

Uneven productivity gains

The survey highlights stark regional differences in how quickly AI-led productivity gains are expected to materialise. The United States is seen benefiting the fastest, with median expectations pointing to gains within a year, followed closely by China. In contrast, much of the developing world faces a significantly longer wait.

AI productivity gains: Median timeline

Region	Expected timeline
United States	~1 year
China	~1.5 years
East Asia & Pacific	~2 years
South Asia	~2–3 years
Europe	~3 years
Middle East & North Africa	~3 years
Latin America	~3–4 years
Sub-Saharan Africa	4–5+ years

Growth impact concentrated in advanced economies

Economists also see AI having a far greater impact on growth in advanced economies than in emerging markets. Nearly all respondents expect AI to significantly influence growth in the United States, compared with far lower expectations for regions such as Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Share expecting ‘significant’ AI impact on growth

Region	% of respondents
United States	97%
China	83%
Europe	42%
South Asia	36%
Middle East & North Africa	33%
Central Asia	21%
Latin America & Caribbean	10%
Sub-Saharan Africa	3%

Jobs outlook: short-term pain, long-term uncertainty

While the near-term employment impact is skewed towards losses, the long-term picture remains highly contested, underlining the uncertainty around how quickly labour markets can adapt.

AI jobs impact: Next two years

Impact	%
Significant job losses	6%
Modest job losses	66%
No change	23%
Modest job gains	6%

AI jobs impact: Next 10 years

Impact	%
Significant job losses	26%
Modest job losses	31%
No change	11%
Modest job gains	26%
Significant job gains	6%

The findings are based on 36 responses from chief economists, surveyed between November 19 and December 3, 2025, and set the stage for discussions at the World Economic Forum’s 56th Annual Meeting in Davos-Klosters from 19–23 January 2026.