Failure to activate Hormuz fertilizer plan could trigger food crisis, UN official says

A failure by the United States and Iran to agree within weeks on a UN-backed plan for moving fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz could cause a food security crisis in parts of Asia and Africa, an official overseeing the proposed scheme said on Wednesday.

The United Nations set up a task force in March to facilitate passage of fertilizers through the strait. It has yet to implement the mechanism it drew up, but United Nations ⁠Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said this could be activated within 7-10 days of an agreement between Washington and Tehran.

"It's absolutely crucial to get the deal in the next few weeks. Otherwise, we will miss the planting season," he said in an interview in Bangkok, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings.

The White House, US State Department and Iran's Embassy in Bangkok did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Iran has sought to tighten its grip on the Strait of Hormuz since US and Israeli strikes on February 28, using the chokepoint to pressure Washington, which has been pressing its own naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Before the war, the waterway handled roughly a third of globally traded urea — the world's most widely used fertilizer — and nearly half of seaborne sulphur, a key input. It is also a major conduit for global oil supplies.

Fertilizer shipments out of the Gulf region remained largely halted more than six months after the start of the conflict, the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute said in a note last month. Fertilizer products accounted for a "very negligible" share of the resumption of some shipping during a ceasefire between mid-June and mid-July, it said.

FIVE VESSELS A DAY

If the Hormuz disruption continues, commodity prices could rise by up to 81% for cereals, 66% for oil crops and 30% for animal products, according to an August report by the International Chamber of Commerce.

"If we miss that planting season, the productivity of agriculture would significantly drop and the impact on prices will significantly increase," Moreira da Silva said.

The proposed operation would use a coordination centre in Oman to register vessels and coordinate safe passage, with UN monitors working alongside local authorities at Gulf ports to verify cargo loading.

The passage of only five vessels per day through Hormuz could keep fertilizer supplies flowing to countries in critical need, Moreira da Silva said.

Ships would be tracked during transit, and additional inspections could be carried out if countries raised concerns about a vessel or its cargo, he added.

MULTIPLE SHIPPING CHOKEPOINTS

Iran and the United States have exchanged proposals through intermediaries since a June interim ceasefire collapsed, but efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled over Tehran's conditions and Washington's insistence on addressing Iran's nuclear programme from the outset.

The proposed UN mechanism could operate alongside negotiations on a comprehensive deal aimed at securing lasting peace and freedom of navigation, Moreira da Silva said.

"What we are telling them is, while you continue your discussions towards a comprehensive deal, let us work, let us do our job," he said, declining to specify the exact bottlenecks to a deal as discussions continue with both sides.

Beyond the Hormuz crisis, a deteriorating situation in the Black Sea region, where cargo vessels have come under attack, and an offensive by Iran-backed Houthi militants along a key Red Sea shipping route are compounding the threat to global food security.

"What we are witnessing now is a concentration of factors," Moreira da Silva said. "Climate crisis, simultaneous disruption of maritime chokepoints on the Black Sea, on the Red Sea and on Hormuz."