Trump's threats could disrupt global oil supply chains, warns Geosphere Capital's Arvind Sanger

Arvind Sanger, Managing Partner, Geosphere Capital Management, warned that oil markets are already showing signs of strain and any follow-through on US President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran could disrupt supply routes and infrastructure, adding to global energy risks.

He said, “The reality is that if President Trump follows through on any of these threats,” there could be broader risks to oil infrastructure and supply routes. He added that the conflict does not have a clear endpoint and cautioned, “There is no easy way out here.”

The warning comes as oil markets react to the ongoing conflict, with prices already moving higher amid supply concerns. Brent crude has risen following Trump’s comments on continuing military action, reflecting fears of disruption to energy flows.

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The situation is closely tied to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that carries a significant share of global oil shipments. Disruptions in the region have already reduced flows and raised concerns about prolonged supply shortages.

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In a recent address, Trump said the US is close to completing its military objectives but warned of further escalation if no deal is reached. He indicated that the US could target Iran’s power generation and oil infrastructure as part of the next phase of action.

He said the US is “on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly” and signalled that strikes could intensify over the next few weeks if negotiations fail.

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John Rossomando, President, Viking Research Associates and US Geopolitical-Strategic Affairs Expert, said President Trump’s comments point to potential escalation targeting Iran’s power systems and oil export capacity. He noted that the US military build-up suggests plans may already be in motion.

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Rossomando said such actions could extend beyond power systems to key oil export points, affecting Iran’s ability to sell crude. He also pointed to risks around the Strait of Hormuz, which remains central to global oil flows.

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