Lucknow: More than 1.5 billion people worldwide experienced at least 30 days of risky heat made significantly more likely by climate change between June and August 2026, with Asia accounting for the largest
number of people exposed, according to a Climate Central analysis.
India among worst affected
India accounted for 117 million people who experienced at least 30 such days, the highest figure among Asian countries. China followed with 94 million and Indonesia with 83 million.
Across Asia, 2.8 billion people, or 58% of the continent's population, experienced at least 30 days of risky heat during the three-month period.
Heat risk measurement explained
Climate Central defined risky heat as temperatures exceeding 90% of those historically observed in a particular location during the 1991-2020 period. The threshold was used because health risks begin to rise as temperatures move beyond the local historical range.
The analysis found that at least one-quarter of the world's population experienced a strong climate change influence on local temperatures on any given day during the period. It also found that people in 203 countries experienced an average of at least 30 days with a strong climate change influence.
Heat impact in India
India's exposure comes against a backdrop of repeated extreme heat episodes and growing concerns over the health effects of prolonged high temperatures. A 2026 district-level study estimated that a five-day heatwave could produce about 30,000 excess deaths nationally, with Uttar Pradesh accounting for an estimated 8,056 of those deaths. These are modelled estimates and should not be treated as the actual 2026 heat death toll.
The India Meteorological Department had forecast above-normal heatwave days for several parts of Uttar Pradesh and other states during June. During an episode in June, Prayagraj recorded 45°C, while heatwave conditions were reported in East Uttar Pradesh.
Global heat trends
Europe recorded the most unusual heat during the period. Nearly nine in 10 Europeans experienced at least a month's worth of risky heat, while France and the Holy See recorded temperature anomalies of around 3.5°C above their historical norms.
Climate Central said the prolonged heat contributed to record-breaking wildfires, drought and pressure on emergency and health services.
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Study methodology and findings
The study assessed daily average temperatures from June 1 to August 31 using Climate Central's Climate Shift Index. It measured the extent to which human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of unusually warm temperatures.
The findings underline the difference between measuring climate-driven heat exposure and measuring its human cost. The Climate Central analysis establishes the scale of exposure, while mortality and hospital data are needed to establish the health burden in individual states and cities.
