India's financial capital, Mumbai, will see a historic political battle in January as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation, or BMC, goes to polls. Historic, because on the one hand it will see a bitter
fight between former alliance partners Uddhav Thackeray and the BJP, while on the other, it will also, perhaps, witness estranged cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray come together as alliance partners to fight the election!
The state election commission on Monday announced civic polls in 29 municipal corporations across Maharashtra, which will see thousands of candidates contesting for close to 2900 seats in 29 civic bodies all over the state, but the biggest attention is, obviously, drawn by the BMC and other municipalities in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, or MMR. Thane, Navi Mumbai, Kalyan-Bombivali, and eight such municipalities in the MMR region will be closely watched, as this is the richest region of the state apart from other bodies like the Pune, Nashik, and Nagpur civic bodies. This obviously will be a 'make or break situation' for one of Maharashtra's most watched political dynasties, the Thackeray cousins!
Balasaheb Thackeray's Shiv Sena, which was established in 1966, has mainly been a political force based in Mumbai and the MMR region. The party thrived in the mid-1980s and, later, in the 90s. The party drew all its power and financial muscle from the BMC and the TMC, or the Thane Municipal Corporation. The party had strong roots in Konkan and later grew in Marathwada, but its base and power centre have always been the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation.
After their alliance with the BJP, which was orchestrated by the late Pramod Mahajan, the Shiv Sena shared power in the BMC till 2017. The saffron alliance partners fell apart and fought separately in the last BMC polls of 2017, in which the Shiv Sena won 84 out of 227 seats while the BJP won 82. Now almost nine years later, the former alliance partners have become harsh political rivals and want to control the BMC single-handedly!
Since the past few weeks, there has been some buzz in the political circles about how estranged Thackeray cousins, Uddhav and Raj, have been holding meetings to draw out a seat-sharing formula to fight the BMC polls together as alliance partners. Though no formal announcement has been made, some insiders say that the cousins recently met one-on-one in London to finalise some kind of pact. It is very obvious that the cousins, who have been at loggerheads for almost 20 years since Raj walked out of the Shiv Sena in 2006, now feel that they both can politically survive only by joining forces, and this sudden and new twist is making waves in both the parties as well as the ruling Mahayuti alliance.
There are two factors being discussed in the political sphere. The first is the impact it will have on the Maha Vikas Aghadi, or MVA, of Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar's NCP. Many say that the Congress is opposed to taking along Raj Thackeray's MNS because Mumbai's migrant population is generally opposed to the MNS, and the Congress party feels that the baggage that the MNS carries from the past may damage their vote bank among the North Indian migrant population.
But the Congress could manage to win only 31 seats out of 227 in the last BMC polls of 2027, while Sharad Pawar's NCP won only nine seats in the BMC, so most feel that they have no choice but to accept Uddhav Thackeray’s decision. The big question is, what will be the seat-sharing pattern if the MVA decides to stick together and fight the elections as one unit?
The other factor is how the BJP will handle the reunion of Thackeray cousins if they actually reach a seat-sharing formula. It is clear that if the Thackerays actually unite, they will command a large chunk of the 27% Maharashtrian votes as well as the 19% minority community votes in Mumbai and the suburbs. Ever since Uddhav Thackeray took an anti-BJP stand in 2019, he has been able to garner a lot of support in the minority community in various areas of Mumbai.
If there is a possibility of Uddhav and Raj together commanding 46% of Mumbai's Marathi plus minority community votes, it will obviously force the BJP to have some kind of seat-sharing alliance with Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena to counter this political threat.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was in Pune on Monday to attend some events where he made it clear that in the Pune Municipal polls, the BJP will fight separately without any Mahayuti alliance with Ajit Pawar's NCP, but in the same event he indirectly indicated that in Mumbai the BJP will fight under the Mahayuti alliance. Which means the BJP will ask Eknath Shinde to take on the Thackerays in the Marathi voter-dominated areas and will make Ajit Pawar’s NCP fight mainly in the minority community voter-dominated areas to take on the Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS challenge.
In Pune, the BJP is now saying it will file nominations in almost all of the 162 municipal seats and have a 'friendly fight' with Ajit Pawar's NCP.
The Maharashtra municipal polls are going to create odd political situations and equations in the state. Alliance partners, who fight as partners in a megacity like Mumbai, will be each other's political rivals in a city like Pune, just 150 km southeast of Mumbai! Alliance politics and shifting equations have created unexpected and strange situations in Maharashtra!
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.
