Mumbai: Citizens need to brace for a hotter summer and dry monsoon this year. Thanks to the development of the El Nino conditions, the 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over
the country as a whole, including that of Mumbai and Maharashtra is most likely to be "below normal."
Parts of Maharashtra Under Alert
Meanwhile, parts of Maharashtra are under alert for heatwave conditions, and a Yellow Alert is sounded for Mumbai and it's metropolitan region for hot and humid conditions for the next couple of days.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) released its long range forecast for the monsoon season on Monday, highlighting that quantitatively the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92% of Long Period Average (LPA). The project carried a model error margin of ± 5%. Rainfall below 96% of the LPA is classified as "below normal".
Weak La Niña-Like Conditions Transitioning to ENSO-Neutral
"At present, Weak La Niña-like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggests the development of El Niño conditions during the southwest monsoon season," the forecast says. In an interview with the Free Press Journal on Monday, IMD Mumbai's regional head Bikram Singh had explained that El Niño is an irregular, complex climate change that is unfavorable for monsoon.
On the other hand, after enduring four heatwaves in March, Maharashtra will witness fifth heatwave of the season this week. As per IMD's distict weather forecast, an Yellow Alert is sounded for Marathwada and Vidharbha region for 'heatwave conditions' for three days, starting from April 15. While for Mumbai and it's neighbouring districts of Thane, Palghar and Raigad, an Yellow Alert is sounded for 'hot and humid conditions'.
As per IMD's local weather forecast for Mumbai City and Suburbs for the next 48 hours, skies will be mainly clear, and maximum and minimum temperatures will be around 34°C and 25°C respectively.
"Mumbai's Santacruz observatory on Monday recorded the maximum and minimum temperature of 33.7°C and 25°C. Although the maximum temperature is not very high, the minimum temperature of 25°C is high enough to give the hotter summer and humidity discomfort," said IMD Mumbai scientist Sushma Nair.
For Mumbai, the minimum temperature of 22°C is considered normal and less humid, if the maximum temperature is around 33°C.
The areas in Mumbai which recorded highest maximum temperature were- Ram Mandir (Oshiwara) 35.2°C, Bandra 35°C, Chembur 33.1°C, Vidyavihar 33.1°C and Dahisar 32.4°C.
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