Karachi: In October 2025, Pakistan sent its first shipment of rare earth minerals to the United States. The move was presented as a historic step to strengthen economic ties and help the US reduce its dependence
on China for critical minerals. The deal was backed by a $500 million agreement and a roadmap to expand mining by 2028.
The shipment was meant to show that Pakistan could become a new and reliable player in global mineral supply chains.
Big claims, little verification
Pakistan claims it holds mineral reserves worth nearly $6 trillion. However, these estimates are not certified under global standards such as JORC or NI 43-101. Without such verification, foreign investors remain cautious.
This lack of reliable data makes it hard to judge how much rare earth wealth Pakistan actually has and whether it can be mined profitably.
Mining sector remains weak
Despite its claims, mining contributes only about 3.2 percent to Pakistan’s GDP and just 0.1 percent to global mineral exports. This shows how underdeveloped the sector remains.
Even large investments under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, estimated at around USD 65 billion, have not helped build a strong rare earth or mining ecosystem.
China link creates new risks
Many mining projects linked to China have faced criticism for poor transparency, limited local benefits, and environmental damage. The Saindak copper project is often cited for water pollution and harm to agriculture.
More importantly, China controls most of the world’s rare earth refining capacity. Even if Pakistan mines more minerals, it may still have to depend on China for processing, defeating the US goal of supply diversification.
Technology, legal and political hurdles
Pakistan uses outdated mining methods and mainly exports raw minerals instead of value-added products. This reduces earnings and competitiveness.
After the 18th Constitutional Amendment, provinces control natural resources. This limits the federal government’s ability to commit mineral access to foreign partners, increasing delays and uncertainty.
More politics than progress?
Experts say that even in the best case, Pakistani rare earths may take a decade to impact global supply chains. For now, many believe the deal is driven more by political messaging than real economic outcomes.
