Mumbai: With two political gladiators – the BJP and the Shiv Sena (UBT)-MNS – announcing that the next Mayor of Mumbai will be a Marathi, the battle lines have clearly been drawn. The BJP, which heads
the Mahayuti, had earlier announced that the city would be led by a Hindu, but later changed its stance, stating that the Mayor would indeed be a Marathi.
Uddhav–Raj Reunion Forces Rivals to Rethink Strategy as Rs 74,000-Crore BMC Comes into Focus
The reunion of Uddhav and Raj Thackeray has altered the political agenda and will now compel other parties to respond in kind. The civic body, with an annual budget exceeding Rs74,000 crore, is up for grabs – albeit with the Marathi asmita (pride) card firmly in play.
It was during the Congress-led rule that the battle for Mumbai was equally fierce. While the Congress stood for 'Mumbai for all,' the Shiv Sena–BJP alliance championed 'Mumbai for Marathis.' In 1992, when the Shiv Sena was at its peak under the late Balasaheb Thackeray, the BJP took a step back. It was officially announced by Thackeray and Pramod Mahajan that the two parties would fight separately. The Congress, led by Sharad Pawar, took full advantage of this split and went on to rule the metropolis for five years.
Much water has flowed under the bridge since then. After ruling the civic body with BJP support from 1997 to 2017, the Shiv Sena fought the last election on its own and survived by a narrow margin. In the 2017 BMC polls, the Sena won 84 seats, narrowly ahead of the BJP’s 82. The BJP chose not to stake its claim to the BMC, prioritising the alliance that was vital for running the Devendra Fadnavis-led state government.
The Uddhav-led Shiv Sena, which leaned more heavily on the Hindu plank after 2004, has now reverted to its original Marathi agenda. The shift has been driven largely by the 2022 party split engineered by Eknath Shinde with BJP support, which weakened the UBT faction as several leaders defected to the Shinde-led Sena. Meanwhile, Raj Thackeray – who has consistently upheld the Marathi language and Marathi Manoos agenda – has decided to join forces with his cousin Uddhav. Their reunion has sharply drawn the battle lines: Mumbai for Marathis or Mumbai for others?
Marathi Vote Bank Emerges as Decisive Factor With Possibility of Unified Consolidation
The Marathi vote bank is estimated to be 32-37%. Electoral arithmetic shifts dramatically when this bloc votes en masse for a single party. Earlier, Marathi voters were divided between the Shiv Sena and the MNS; now, a unified push is likely. In 2007, when the MNS contested the BMC elections for the first time, it secured 10.43% of the vote, while the unified Shiv Sena polled 22.71%. In 2012, the MNS vote share rose to 20.67%, with the Sena at 21.85%. Had the Sena not allied with the BJP, which garnered 8.64%, the outcome could have been very different.
In 2017, when the Sena and BJP contested separately, the Sena secured 28.29% of the vote, while the BJP followed closely with 27.32%. The MNS managed 7.73%. Of the 227 seats in the BMC, the Congress won only 31, while the undivided Shiv Sena and BJP won 84 and 82 seats, respectively.
“Mumbai’s mayor will be Marathi, and he will be ours,” Raj Thackeray declared while announcing the poll pact. This sets up a major challenge for the Eknath Shinde–led Shiv Sena, which must now prove its relevance and identity in Mumbai.
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