Paris: France has been thrown into a new political crisis after its National Assembly passed a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister François Bayrou (74) on Monday. As Bayrou is forced to step down,
President Emmanuel Macron (47) finds himself in a soup; he has to pick a new head of government and has to find a solution for the country’s 2026 budget.
As Bayrou hands over his resignation today, his cabinet would then be
responsible merely for ``current business " until the new PM is appointed.
Macron could pick someone from his centrist bloc or the moderate right again. Potential candidates are Labour Minister Catherine Vautrin, Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu or Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin.
The Socialist Party under Olivier Faure has pledged its desire to lead. Ex-PM Bernard Cazeneuve, Jean-Yves Le Drian, and Pierre Moscovici are other options. Macron also has the option of choosing someone from the civil society, a non-political figure. His last option is dissolving the lower house of the Parliament.
The loss of a government's confidence is rather unusual in France's Fifth
Republic. This has happened only twice before— in 1962 under the
premiership of Georges Pompidou, and in December 2024 when Michel
Barnier's administration was censured. Both times the presidency was gravely debilitated.
Macron is now confronted with the ultimate conundrum: either disband the National Assembly and order new elections, or select a Prime Minister who will have to manoeuvre the same broken legislature. As opposed to in last December when Macron was blocked from calling out early elections because he had already dissolved the Assembly six months earlier, he is allowed to do this time. If he dissolves, France will proceed to new elections after which there will be the establishment of a new government.
Dissolution Comes With Huge Risks
But dissolution comes with huge risks. Recent opinion polls find far-right leader Marine Le Pen's National Rally (RN) in the top spot with some 31% of voting intentions versus the united left with 23.5%, with Macron's Ensemble centrist alliance at 14%. The conservatives Republicans (LR) lag at 10.5%. A divided left would only solidify RN's top spot. If Macron does not disband, he will be forced to choose a Prime Minister who will have to govern from a fractured chamber, broken into three blocs: the left, the centre-right, and far right. Any new administration would continue to be at risk of facing another no-
confidence vote.
Bayrou’s fall puts the 2026 budget in a major fix. His government’s draft has effectively been rejected. A new administration could present a fresh budget to Parliament. If no government is in office prior to year-end, the outgoing cabinet may bring in a special bill to carry the 2025 budget over into 2026. The move would provide stability in expenditure and revenue accrual. If that bill does not pass, France risks a complete shutdown without an operational budget. Such an unprecedented event would then see Macron resorting to Article 16 of the Constitution, whereby he would be vested with extraordinary powers to rule the nation sans Parliament.
The stakes for Macron are sky high. A recent survey reported that 82% of
French citizens were fed up with this political circus, with 64% believing that Macron himself should step down.
