Saudi Arabia’s officials in an internal projection have said that oil prices could rise to as high as $180 per barrel if disruptions caused by the United States-Israel-Iran war persist until late April.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, the projection forms part of the country’s base-case scenario, indicating the deep impact the ongoing conflict could have on global energy markets.
Saudi officials have outlined a phased price trajectory if disruptions persist.
In the near term, the prices could range from $130–$140 per barrel. By early April, the prices could surge to around $150.
If further escalation is seen in the war then prices could rise to $160–$165.
In the late April scenario, the projection is at $180+ per barrel.
Oil prices are hitting the roof amid widespread disruptions in supply due to attacks on key energy infrastructure across the West Asian region.
Strikes on facilities in countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran have significantly impacted production and exports.
The Wall Street Journal reported that crude has risen about 50 percent since late February, when tensions escalated. Brent crude has traded around $115–$120 per barrel, while regional benchmarks such as Oman crude have spiked significantly higher.
The report notes that markets are increasingly treating the disruption as prolonged rather than temporary.
The situation has been further worsened by constraints in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route that accounts for nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
With multiple supply channels under stress, global oil markets have already witnessed sharp price spikes in recent weeks, with crude briefly nearing multi-year highs.
Saudi Arabia’s estimate underscores the risk of a prolonged energy crisis if the conflict continues without resolution. Analysts believe that continued disruptions to production and transportation could tighten supply further, pushing prices significantly higher.
The war has already led to one of the largest supply shocks in recent history, with several Gulf producers cutting output and redirecting exports through alternative routes.
