Indian Scientists Use AI to Predict How Bird Flu (H5N1) Could Spread to Humans

Bird flu, also known as H5N1, has been a concern for scientists for decades because of the risk it could spread from birds to humans. The virus is currently affecting poultry farms across the world, and experts warn that if it jumps to humans, it could cause serious health problems. Although H5N1 has occasionally infected people since it first appeared in China in the late 1990s, new research shows how advanced technology can help predict and prevent such outbreaks.A recent study by scientists from Ashoka University used an AI-based model to simulate how the bird flu virus could spill over from birds to humans. Researchers published their findings in BMC Public Health, zeroing in on how an outbreak might start and what we can actually do to stop

it from spreading among people.

How the Model Works

They used a computer simulation called BharatSim to track how infectious diseases move. The model follows two big steps: first, the virus jumps from birds to people, then it looks at whether people start passing it to each other. It doesn’t stop there—it also pays attention to how quickly the virus moves and just how many people could catch it in those early days.The study tested different strategies to prevent a human outbreak. These included:

• Culling infected birds early, before anyone gets sick.
• Quarantining people who had close contact with the first cases.
• Vaccinating high-risk people in a targeted way.

The findings show that culling infected birds as soon as the virus is detected is the most effective way to stop the virus from reaching humans. Once the virus spreads from human to human, larger measures like lockdowns, mass vaccination, and public health campaigns are needed to control it.

Why This Research Matters

H5N1 is common in South and Southeast Asia because of the growing poultry industry. Between 2003 and August 2025, the World Health Organization reported 990 human cases of H5N1 in 25 countries, with 475 deaths, which is a fatality rate of nearly 48%. Symptoms in humans can include fever, cough, body aches, fatigue, sore throat, and eye irritation.By using AI models, scientists can predict how the virus might spread and identify the best ways to stop it. This helps public health authorities take action early, which can then help prevent a pandemic. The study makes one thing clear: acting fast matters. Once the virus starts jumping from person to person, stopping it gets a lot tougher. Spotting the problem early, culling sick birds, and rolling out vaccines in the right places can keep a small flare-up from exploding into a full-blown disaster.