What's Happening?
Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) has announced a significant increase in its net profit for 2025, reaching BD218.7 million ($582 million), up from BD184.5 million in 2024. This surge is attributed to the impact of U.S. tariffs, which have driven up domestic aluminium prices. The company's total income rose by 16% year-on-year, with prices averaging $2,630 per tonne, a 9% increase from the previous year on the London Mercantile Exchange. In the fourth quarter of 2025, Alba's net earnings saw a dramatic 193% year-on-year increase, with total income climbing 181% to BD107 million. Despite price volatility, with fluctuations between $2,683.50 and $2,968 per tonne, the market remains supported by strong fundamentals, fund inflows, and ongoing supply constraints.
Alba's board has recommended a final cash dividend of 44% of the capital, amounting to BD62 million.
Why It's Important?
The increase in Alba's net profit highlights the significant impact of U.S. tariffs on the aluminium industry, affecting global pricing and market dynamics. The tariffs have contributed to higher domestic prices, benefiting producers like Alba. This development underscores the interconnectedness of international trade policies and their direct effects on industry profitability. The strong performance of Alba also reflects broader market trends, including structural deficits in North America and Europe, and growing demand in China driven by battery-storage applications. The sustained high prices, despite expected moderation, indicate ongoing supply disruptions and market constraints, which could continue to influence global aluminium markets and related industries.
What's Next?
Alba anticipates continued growth in global aluminium consumption, driven by structural deficits and new applications in China. Prices are expected to remain strong, within the $2,650-$2,750 per tonne range, despite potential moderation later in 2026. The company also foresees persistent supply disruptions, which may offset planned capacity additions in Asia. These factors suggest that the aluminium market will remain dynamic, with potential implications for global trade and industry stakeholders. Alba's strategic positioning and market insights will be crucial as it navigates these challenges and opportunities.
