What's Happening?
Morgan Stanley Research has updated its projection for GLP-1 usage among US consumers, estimating that usage will reach approximately 55 million by 2035, up from a previous estimate of 33 million. This revision is driven by two key market shifts: the
availability of GLP-1 medications through Medicare and the introduction of oral formats. Despite the increase in projected users, the net calorie reduction forecast remains unchanged due to factors such as lower treatment persistence and higher discontinuation rates. A survey conducted by Morgan Stanley found that GLP-1 users significantly reduce calorie intake, with 50% reporting reductions of 20% or more.
Why It's Important?
The increased adoption of GLP-1 medications could have a substantial impact on the US food and beverage industry, as these drugs are associated with reduced calorie consumption. This trend may pressure food companies to innovate and adapt to changing consumer behaviors, particularly in developing zero-calorie products. The widespread use of GLP-1s reflects a broader shift towards health and wellness, influencing market dynamics and consumer preferences. As the user base expands, the industry may face challenges in maintaining sales of traditional high-calorie products.
What's Next?
Morgan Stanley anticipates that the decline in US calorie consumption will accelerate in the coming years, driven by increased consumer adoption of GLP-1s, before moderating in 2029. Food and beverage manufacturers may need to focus on innovation in low-calorie and zero-calorie products to remain competitive. The report suggests that beverage manufacturers, in particular, should prioritize the development of zero-calorie options like carbonated soft drinks and energy beverages to align with consumer trends.
