What's Happening?
According to a forecast by Dell’Oro Group, global spending on broadband access equipment is expected to peak at $18.8 billion in 2028. The market is projected to grow at a modest 0.3% average annual rate between 2025 and 2030, driven by ongoing DOCSIS 4.0 upgrades and continued fiber expansion. The report indicates a slower-than-expected rollout of 50 Gbps PON technologies, with operators reassessing the pace of next-generation upgrades due to slower broadband usage growth and pressure on margins. XGS-PON is expected to remain the dominant fiber technology through the decade, particularly in North America, EMEA, and CALA, while China will drive volume through large-scale FTTR deployments. The demand for advanced in-home connectivity, especially
Wi-Fi 7, will continue to be a major revenue driver.
Why It's Important?
The forecasted peak in broadband spending highlights the cautious investment approach by operators amid competitive pressures and slower consumption growth. This trend could impact the pace of technological advancements and infrastructure upgrades, affecting service providers and consumers. The continued dominance of XGS-PON technology suggests a focus on maintaining existing infrastructure rather than rapid adoption of newer technologies. This could influence the competitive landscape, with operators needing to balance cost management with the demand for high-speed connectivity. The emphasis on in-home connectivity solutions like Wi-Fi 7 underscores the growing importance of enhancing user experience within existing networks.
What's Next?
Operators are likely to continue focusing on fiber network expansions and subscriber growth while managing costs. The anticipated large-scale deployments of 50 Gbps PON in China by 2027 could eventually lead to reduced component pricing, potentially accelerating global adoption. In the meantime, operators will need to strategically allocate capital expenditures to maintain competitiveness. The industry may see increased collaboration and innovation in in-home connectivity solutions to meet consumer demands for faster and more reliable internet access.
