What's Happening?
A recent survey conducted by DP World, as part of their Global Trade Observatory (GTO) Annual Outlook Report 2026, indicates a positive outlook among trade leaders for the year 2026, despite anticipated challenges. The survey, which included responses from 3,500 senior supply chain and logistics executives across eight industries and 19 countries, reveals that 94% of respondents expect trade growth in 2026 to match or exceed the pace of 2025. This optimism persists even though 53% of the executives foresee high or very high policy uncertainty, and 90% expect trade barriers to rise or remain unchanged. The survey highlights that only 25% of respondents anticipate a negative impact on their business, while 49% expect no effect and 26% foresee a positive impact.
The report contrasts with the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) forecast, which predicts a slowdown in trade growth by volume to 2.3% in 2026, down from an estimated 3.6% in 2025.
Why It's Important?
The findings of the DP World survey are significant as they reflect a resilient business confidence in the face of global trade challenges. The optimism among trade leaders suggests that businesses are adapting to the volatile environment by embedding resilience into their strategies. This includes diversifying suppliers, reassessing trade routes, and increasing inventories. Such strategic shifts are crucial for maintaining stability and growth in the global trade sector, which is vital for economic development. The survey also underscores the importance of infrastructure investment, as executives prioritize improvements in warehousing, logistics hubs, and customs processing to mitigate border frictions. The positive sentiment among trade leaders could influence policy decisions and encourage further investments in trade infrastructure, potentially offsetting some of the negative impacts predicted by macroeconomic forecasts.
What's Next?
As trade leaders prepare for 2026, they are likely to continue focusing on strategies that enhance resilience and adaptability. This includes exploring new trade routes and investing in infrastructure to improve connectivity and reduce customs delays. The emphasis on supplier diversification and friend-shoring indicates a shift towards more localized and reliable supply chains. These strategies could lead to increased collaboration between countries and regions, fostering a more interconnected global trade network. Additionally, the ongoing discussions at international forums, such as the World Economic Forum, may influence future trade policies and agreements, potentially addressing some of the anticipated trade barriers and uncertainties.
