What is the story about?
The Nifty 50 index heads into the November series on the back of its best series performance since June 2024. The index closed the October series with gains of over 1,300 points, and coming within 150 points of its all-time high of 26,277, which it had hit in September last year.
Historically, the November series over the last four years does not present a definitive trend for the index. The 2024 series was a negative one after two years of gains.
The October series turned out to be the second straight positive one for the Nifty 50 with gains of over 5%.
Foreign institutional investors, who began the October series at record short positions, have significantly covered their shorts, which also was a key factor behind the Nifty surge in October. For the first time in three months, FII longs in index futures are in double digits.
Nifty rollovers at the start of the November series are on the lower side. Rollovers stand at 75.8%, which is well below the three-month average of 80.6%.
Open Interest at the start of the series has also seen a reduction compared to the previous months. The Nifty begins the November series with an Open Interest of 1.43 crore shares, which is the lowest level since June.
While FIIs are still net short on 92,000 contracts, the client long exposure stands at 67% or 75,000 contracts.
Among key triggers this series will be the outcome of the US Federal Reserve later tonight, followed by results from big tech companies over the next two days. Developments around the trade deals between the US and China, the US and India will also be keenly watched, along with the remainder of the second quarter earnings season.
Historically, the November series over the last four years does not present a definitive trend for the index. The 2024 series was a negative one after two years of gains.
| November Series Year | Returns (Points) | Returns (%) |
| 2021 | -321 | -1.8 |
| 2022 | 747 | 4.2 |
| 2023 | 1,276 | 6.8 |
| 2024 | -291 | -1.2 |
The October series turned out to be the second straight positive one for the Nifty 50 with gains of over 5%.
| F&O Series | Returns (Points) |
| October 2025 | 1,325 |
| September 2025 | 110 |
| August 2025 | -267 |
| July 2025 | -781 |
| June 2025 | 715 |
| May 2025 | 587 |
Foreign institutional investors, who began the October series at record short positions, have significantly covered their shorts, which also was a key factor behind the Nifty surge in October. For the first time in three months, FII longs in index futures are in double digits.
| Month | FII Longs In Futures |
| November | 20% |
| October | 6% |
| September | 8% |
| August | 10% |
| July | 38% |
| June | 20% |
Nifty rollovers at the start of the November series are on the lower side. Rollovers stand at 75.8%, which is well below the three-month average of 80.6%.
| Series | Rollovers |
| November | 75.8% |
| October | 82.6% |
| September | 83.6% |
| August | 75.7% |
| July | 79.5% |
| June | 79.1% |
Open Interest at the start of the series has also seen a reduction compared to the previous months. The Nifty begins the November series with an Open Interest of 1.43 crore shares, which is the lowest level since June.
| Month | Nifty Open Interest (Shares) |
| November | 1.43 Crore |
| October | 1.71 Crore |
| September | 1.6 Crore |
| August | 1.55 Crore |
| July | 1.5 Crore |
| June | 1.26 Crore |
While FIIs are still net short on 92,000 contracts, the client long exposure stands at 67% or 75,000 contracts.
Among key triggers this series will be the outcome of the US Federal Reserve later tonight, followed by results from big tech companies over the next two days. Developments around the trade deals between the US and China, the US and India will also be keenly watched, along with the remainder of the second quarter earnings season.
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