With the rupee continuing to remain volatile in December 2025 and January 2026, analysts expect the trend to continue.
However, the pace of dollar sales by the RBI in the spot market slowed in November 2025, as per central bank data. Net dollar sales stood at $9.71 billion, lower than October’s $11.87 billion, but were still the second highest in FY26.
While month-on-month net dollar sales declined in November, RBI’s net dollar sales in the forward markets have remained strong. Forward market transactions refer to contracts where dollars are bought or sold for a future date, rather than immediately.
At the end of November 2025, the central bank had sold $66 billion in the forward market, mainly to influence future expectations on the rupee. This was nearly 4% higher compared to October 2025.
“The intervention was forced to offset a poor balance of payments position that is likely to show a deficit for the second consecutive year, as well as to tackle weak sentiment stemming from high US tariffs that could be supporting speculative activity against the rupee”, said Abhishek Upadhyay, Senior Economist at I-Sec Primary Dealership.
With the rupee depreciating at a faster clip and exhibiting higher volatility, the Reserve Bank turned into a net seller of dollars in FY25. It sold $34.5 billion in FY25 in the spot market, compared with a net purchase of $41.2 billion in FY24. In the forward market, the sale of contracts jumped to a massive $84.3 billion in FY25 from just $0.5 billion in FY24.
Data on the sale and purchase of dollars by the RBI for the months of December 2025 and the ongoing January 2026 will be crucial, as the rupee breached the 90 and 91 levels, respectively, in those months.
