The local currency tracked losses in other Asian peers as US Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled that a December rate cut is not assured.
Traders said the rupee faced renewed pressure amid firm US yields and persistent dollar demand from importers, though support from the Reserve Bank of India through state-run banks was visible near the 88.40–88.50 levels.
US bond yields climbed sharply overnight, with the 10-year yield rising 8 basis points and the 2-year up 10 basis points. The move followed Powell’s remarks that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion,” prompting investors to trim bets on early easing.
The probability of a December rate cut dropped from over 90% to about two-thirds, while the dollar index rose 0.4%, regaining the 99 mark.
A dissent from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who favoured holding rates steady, added to the hawkish tone and deepened the selloff in Treasuries.
The firmer dollar weighed on most Asian currencies, including the rupee.
Despite Powell’s comments, several analysts continued to expect policy easing later this year. ING Bank said it still anticipates a December cut, citing a softer inflation outlook and concerns over the labour market. Goldman Sachs also maintained its call for a December cut, noting that employment data are unlikely to reassure the Fed sufficiently before the next meeting.
Market participants said the rupee remains vulnerable to global cues and external pressures, even as RBI interventions have capped excessive volatility in recent sessions.
-With Reuters inputs
