Market Recovery Amidst Uncertainty
The Indian stock market demonstrated resilience, recovering from a period of volatility. The Nifty 50 concluded with a modest gain of 0.46% at 25,571.25,
while the Sensex advanced 0.38% to 82,814.71. The banking sector showed particular strength, with the Bank Nifty outperforming with a 0.71% increase to 61,172.00. This rebound was bolstered by positive performance in metals and energy sectors, helping to mitigate concerns arising from the IT sector's weakness, US-Iran geopolitical tensions, and broader global trade uncertainties. Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) played a crucial role in stabilizing the market against Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) outflows. Encouraging Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings further reinforced confidence in the robustness of private sector activity, especially within manufacturing. Analysts view the recent pullback as a temporary corrective phase within a larger uptrend, with critical support levels holding firm and strong earnings momentum providing a cushion against significant downside risks.
US Tariffs & Market Open
Following a significant development concerning US tariffs, market experts anticipate a positive opening for the Indian stock market. The US Supreme Court's decision on tariffs, coupled with President Trump's subsequent executive order imposing a fresh global tariff, has generated considerable discussion. While the Indian market was closed during the initial announcement, the Gift Nifty 50 futures indicated a substantial rise, closing approximately 200 points higher than the previous day's Nifty 50 close on the Dalal Street. This suggests a potential gap-up opening for domestic equities. One fundamental equity analyst highlighted that the Gift Nifty 50 futures for February 26, 2026, expiry closed at 25,764, a notable increase from the Nifty 50's close at 25,571. Consequently, an opening jump of over 500 points for the BSE Sensex on Monday is not unexpected, signaling a strong immediate market sentiment driven by external policy shifts.
Gold and Silver Surge
In response to the US Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and President Trump's issuance of a special order imposing a 15% tariff on all trade partners, global markets are experiencing heightened trade uncertainty. This environment is significantly boosting demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, a trend already observable in early Asian market trading. COMEX gold rates opened with an upward gap, reaching an intraday high of $5193.91 per ounce, marking an approximate 2% gain from Friday's closing price of $5,080 per ounce. Similarly, COMEX silver rates also saw an upside gap at the opening, touching an intraday peak of $87.395 per ounce, reflecting a gain exceeding 6% from its previous close. Experts predict a continuation of the bullish trend in bullion, citing ongoing trade uncertainties, geopolitical risk premiums, and macroeconomic crosscurrents as structurally supportive factors for gold and silver prices.
FII/DII Flows & INR Weakness
On Friday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) concluded the trading session as net sellers, divesting Indian shares worth ₹935 crore. However, this selling pressure was effectively counteracted by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), who demonstrated robust buying activity, purchasing shares valued at ₹2,637 crore. This significant DII intervention played a vital role in maintaining market stability amidst FII outflows. Concurrently, the Indian National Rupee (INR) experienced a depreciation of 26 paise against the US dollar, settling at 90.94. This weakening was attributed to a stronger US Dollar and elevated crude oil prices, exacerbated by intensifying global geopolitical tensions. The ongoing standoff has heightened risk sentiment, contributing to the rupee's decline. While upcoming events like an AI Summit in India could potentially attract fund inflows and support the INR, resistance is noted near the 90.50 mark, with support anticipated around 91.25.
Five Stocks to Watch
Market analysts have put forth several stock recommendations for investors to consider. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, suggests buying Vardhman Textiles at ₹536, with a target price of ₹574 and a stop loss at ₹517. He notes that Vardhman Textiles is trading near its 52-week high of ₹539.9 after breaking out of a consolidation phase, indicating a potential long-term uptrend fueled by increased trading volumes. Bagadia also recommends ABSLAMC, advising a buy at ₹918, targeting ₹984 with a stop loss at ₹885. ABSLAMC is in a strong bullish trend, having recently reached its 52-week high of ₹921 after forming a rounding base and breaking out of a sideways range, signaling steady accumulation. Shiju Koothupalakkal, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, recommends BHEL at ₹257, with a target of ₹270 and a stop loss at ₹252. BHEL shows signs of revival, taking support near the 200-period Moving Average and exhibiting decent volume. He also suggests Cummins India, with a buy at ₹4733, a target of ₹4900, and a stop loss at ₹4660, noting its strong uptrend and sustenance above the ₹4600 breakout zone. Lastly, JSW Energy is recommended for purchase at ₹493.95, with a target of ₹520 and a stop loss at ₹484, having shown positive momentum from the ₹435 zone and surpassing the 50-EMA level.
