Economic Growth Outlook
India's economy is poised for robust expansion in the coming years. Recent government estimates suggest a GDP growth rate of 7.4% in fiscal year 2025-26,
despite global economic challenges. Furthermore, India Ratings projects a 6.9% GDP growth for fiscal year 2026-27, driven by government reform measures. Dun & Bradstreet forecasts a 6.6% growth in fiscal year 2027, driven by new growth engines beyond stability.
Stock Market Trends
The stock market has displayed a mixed performance. On January 8, the Sensex fell by 780 points, and the Nifty dropped below 25,900. The following day, the market continued its downward trend, resulting in the worst week since September 2025, with the Nifty below 25,700. In December, equity inflows decreased by 6%. However, India's primary market is anticipated to reach ₹4 lakh crore in 2026, setting a global record. Several factors contribute to these market fluctuations, necessitating an understanding of the current financial climate.
IPO Market Activity
The IPO market is active with various offerings. Bharat Coking Coal's IPO, for instance, opened on January 9 and was fully subscribed within an hour. The Modern Diagnostic IPO saw its GMP (Grey Market Premium) increase. E to E Transportation Infra IPO listed at a 90% premium on the NSE SME platform. The Gabion Technologies IPO experienced significant subscription levels, reaching up to 826 times.
Real Estate Sector
The real estate sector is witnessing considerable activity. India's net office leasing in the top seven cities reached an all-time high of 55 million sq ft in 2025. Furthermore, India's REIT market has grown to ₹2.3 lakh crore, surpassing Hong Kong within six years. Housing affordability is enhanced by home loan rate cuts. Housing sales fell to a 17-quarter low in Q4 2025, with a 10% decline in supply. Additionally, there is an increase in the demand for premium, branded homes.
Banking and Finance
The banking sector is showing signs of strength. The RBI has indicated that Indian banks are strengthening, with double-digit growth and falling NPAs (Non-Performing Assets) in 2024–25. ICICI Bank launched a Capital Gains Account Scheme to assist taxpayers in claiming exemptions and earning interest. Karur Vysya Bank also launched a Capital Gains Account for tax relief. BOI Mutual Fund launched a Banking & Financial Services Fund.
Investment Strategies
Several investment options are available. Indian Gold ETFs saw their highest-ever monthly inflows, reaching $1.25 billion. Wealth Company launched a Gold ETF Fund of Fund for 2026 investors. Experts are also discussing the role of AIFs (Alternative Investment Funds) in NPS (National Pension System). Moreover, there's the option to invest in 3-year fixed deposits, with interest rates varying among top banks in 2026. The shift beyond salary income is evident as filings for ITR-2 and ITR-3 surge.
Tax and Compliance
Taxpayers should be aware of several deadlines. The December 31 deadline for linking PAN with Aadhaar and filing belated ITRs and GST returns was crucial. The government is also introducing a new income tax law, set to roll out from April 2026. ICICI Bank is launching a Capital Gains Account Scheme for tax relief. Updated ITRs were filed by 22.4 lakh people, while 26 lakh revised returns were filed until December 31. Moreover, the Income Tax Department tracks online spending and digital activity.
Commodity Markets
Commodity markets have shown volatility. Silver prices experienced a sharp decline, crashing by ₹10,000 in a day. The price of silver tumbled ₹8,000 per kg, affecting Hindustan Zinc and silver ETFs. However, some analysts predict crude oil prices may fall to $50 a barrel by June 2026. Also, copper prices have hit record highs, potentially reshaping investment dynamics.
Regulatory Updates
Various regulatory updates are impacting the financial landscape. The MCA (Ministry of Corporate Affairs) extended the deadline for FY25 annual filings until January 31 without late fees due to portal glitches. SEBI is investigating BofA (Bank of America) for sharing insider information before a $180 million block deal. Moreover, there's an ongoing discussion on whether the government will hike excise duty on petrol and diesel before the 2026 budget.
Other Economic Factors
Several other factors are shaping the economic scenario. The Rupee saw an appreciation of 31 paise, closing below the 90-mark at 89.87 against the US Dollar. Moreover, the Union Budget 2026 is scheduled for Sunday. Post-GST relief, Indians are opting for larger health covers and longer policies, as per Policybazaar data. Furthermore, the rising prices of cigarettes and pan masala, set to take effect from February 1, reflect government excise duty changes.
