Economic Growth Outlook
Moody’s anticipates India's economy to grow at 7.3% in fiscal year 2026, highlighting a positive outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded
India's growth forecast to 7.3% for 2025. This shows confidence in the nation's economic potential, despite potential global trade challenges. Furthermore, SBI Research suggests India is on track to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030, aiming for a $5-trillion economy in two years.
Budget 2026 Expectations
The upcoming Budget 2026 is a focal point, with various sectors closely watching for key policy changes. Experts anticipate potential government measures, including capping the fiscal deficit at 4.3% and pushing medium-term debt consolidation, according to ICRA. The auto industry is seeking incentives for electric vehicles (EVs) and clarification on Goods and Services Tax (GST) post GST 2.0 recovery. In the real estate sector, there are calls for tax relief and stable policies. Tax experts are also looking for increased deductions, relief on the 30% tax slab, and modifications in capital gains tax. KPMG has listed tax clarity and faster dispute resolution for ease of doing business.
Banking Sector Analysis
Several banking institutions have recently announced their financial results, reflecting on the current financial climate. ICICI Bank's net profit fell by 4% year-on-year to ₹11,317.86 crore, while HDFC Bank saw a net profit increase of 11.4% year-on-year, reaching ₹18,653.75 crore. Yes Bank's net profit surged by 55.4% year-on-year, totaling ₹952 crore. RBL Bank reported a significant increase, with a net profit that was up by 5.5 times to ₹214 crore. The performances indicate a mixed bag of results within the banking sector, influenced by varied factors and strategies. Also, the RBI has launched the Integrated Ombudsman Scheme 2026, which aims to improve grievance redressal, going live from July 1.
Market Trends & Investments
The stock market has displayed volatility, with the Sensex declining over 1,400 points in two days, causing the Nifty50 to drop below 25,200, which has created concerns. In the real estate sector, capital inflows surged by 25% to a record $14.3 billion in 2025. The silver market has been particularly active, with prices hitting record highs, while gold prices have also been rising. Analysts are evaluating potential investment strategies and market movements, including the performance of railway stocks and the impact of bulk and block deals on stock prices. The possibility of joint tax filing for married couples is also under consideration.
Income Tax Updates
Several changes and updates are affecting income tax regulations. The new income tax system is set to be effective from April 1 to simplify provisions. There are discussions and considerations related to the phasing out of the old tax regime. Those awaiting income tax refunds might encounter delays, with a focus on understanding the reasons and how to check the status. Karur Vysya Bank has launched a Capital Gains Account for tax relief. The government is also looking at how to make the new tax regime more attractive.
Industry Insights & IPOs
The article highlights several industry-specific insights and initial public offerings (IPOs). The Coca-Cola bottling arm HCCB is planning a $1 billion IPO in 2026. The real estate sector is showing positive sentiment, with office demand and funding outlook contributing to confidence. The Gurugram region attracted ₹86,588 crore in real estate investments in 2025 as RERA cleared 131 projects. The Avana Electrosystems IPO has garnered significant interest, and the Bharat Coking Coal IPO's listing is highly anticipated.
