Shareholder Base Expansion
The number of public shareholders in the unlisted NSE has witnessed a substantial increase, reaching 183,621. This represents a rise of 8,600 shareholders within
a single quarter. A significant portion of this growth stems from retail investors, who now constitute 171,563 shareholders, up from 163,478 at the end of September 2025. Consequently, retail shareholders currently hold approximately 12.3% of the exchange's shares. This surge in the number of shareholders has been observed during a time when NSE shares in the unlisted market saw an upswing. The shares experienced a notable increase, rising to ₹2,095 apiece from ₹1,975 within a week, according to data from UnlistedZone. This expansion indicates growing investor confidence and interest in NSE's performance and future prospects.
Market Outlook Overview
Elara Capital forecasts a positive outlook for the Indian market, particularly for the Nifty index. The brokerage firm has set a target of 30,000 for the Nifty by the financial year ending March 2027, which indicates a potential upside of nearly 17% from the current levels. The anticipated growth is expected to be fueled by an improvement in corporate earnings rather than any significant expansion in valuations. This earnings-driven growth is expected to provide a more sustainable market recovery. According to Elara Capital, the recovery will be supported by various factors, including double-digit nominal GDP growth in FY27, a slower pace of fiscal consolidation coupled with pro-consumption measures, and a favorable interest-rate environment with supportive liquidity conditions. These elements are seen as key drivers for the market's positive trajectory over the next couple of years.
FY26 Earnings Challenges
Despite the overall positive outlook, FY26 earnings are expected to face certain pressures. The challenges are primarily attributed to pricing fatigue in the consumer staples and healthcare sectors. Additionally, subdued growth in IT services, stemming from weak global demand, and regulated returns in utilities are anticipated to affect earnings. These factors are expected to contribute to a relatively subdued performance in the initial phase. However, as rate-cut transmission improves and consumption recovers, along with operating leverage kicking in, earnings growth is expected to re-accelerate meaningfully from FY27 onwards. This transition phase highlights the cyclical nature of market dynamics, where short-term hurdles can be overcome with broader economic improvements.
Sector-Specific Growth Analysis
In FY26, only a limited number of sectors are projected to experience double-digit profit growth. These include consumer discretionary, telecom, energy, and materials, suggesting a narrow, cyclical-led recovery. This indicates that the initial phase of the recovery might be concentrated in specific segments. However, a broader-based recovery is anticipated by FY27, with the number of sectors delivering double-digit profit growth expected to increase. Industrials (17%), consumer staples (11%), and financials (11%) are expected to join materials and discretionary sectors in driving growth. Elara estimates that Nifty earnings per share will rise from an estimated ₹1,096 in FY26 to ₹1,281 in FY27 and ₹1,463 in FY28. This translates to earnings growth of approximately 17% in FY27 and 14% in FY28. The shift suggests a more balanced and sustainable recovery, driven by a wider range of sectors.
Long-Term Earnings Growth
The brokerage anticipates that after a subdued start to FY26, Nifty earnings are expected to compound at 14–15% through FY27 and FY28. This indicates a consistent and healthy growth trajectory over the longer term. The earnings-driven gains, rather than valuation expansion, are expected to be the primary catalyst for market performance. This reflects a fundamental belief in the strength of corporate earnings. Overall, the combination of growing shareholder numbers, projected earnings growth, and sector-specific analysis paints a positive picture of the NSE and the broader market's future. The forecast suggests that the market’s trajectory will be shaped by a sustained recovery and broader participation across different sectors, leading to a more robust and sustainable growth phase.
