Economic Growth Outlook
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates robust growth in India's economy. The forecast for fiscal year 2026 has been raised to 6.6%. Simultaneously,
HSBC MF suggests that the economic slowdown may have bottomed out, with an expected recovery on the horizon. This positive outlook is further supported by the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) initiatives, including the decision to scrap approximately 9,000 circulars, indicating a major regulatory overhaul. This indicates the government's efforts to streamline processes and foster economic growth.
Market Performance Insights
The Indian stock market showed fluctuations, with the Sensex and Nifty experiencing gains and losses. On one day, the Sensex closed 862 points higher, while the Nifty surpassed 25,550. However, on another day, the Sensex saw a dip of 100 points, with the Nifty testing 25,550. Several stocks, including Wipro, Infosys, and Axis Bank, were actively watched by investors. The market also reacted to specific company announcements, such as Infosys declaring an interim dividend of Rs 23 per share. Financial experts are also watching to see if the market's recovery after a flat year will continue.
Sectoral Economic Trends
Multiple sectors demonstrated varied performances. September witnessed record-high auto sales, driven by festive cheer and GST cuts that boosted demand. The Housing Sentiment Index rebounded to 142, reflecting increased buyer confidence. The financial sector also provided insights, with Indian Bank reporting an 11.5% year-over-year jump in net profit to Rs 3,018 crore. Furthermore, Nestlé India's domestic sales hit a record high, even though their net profit decreased by 24% year-over-year to Rs 753 crore. The property market, particularly in Delhi-NCR, saw a significant 24% rise in housing prices from July to September 2025.
Banking and Finance
The banking sector showed varied results. Indian Bank posted a net profit increase of 11.5% year-over-year, reaching Rs 3,018 crore. Axis Bank, despite a 26% drop in Q2 net profit, saw its shares rise by 3%. Meanwhile, RBI initiated a major regulatory overhaul by planning to scrap around 9,000 circulars. The Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) announced greater withdrawal flexibility for members, including increased withdrawals for education (up to 10 times) and marriage (5 times). The EPFO also clarified that 75% of PF money could be withdrawn anytime without paperwork, and 100% after one year of joblessness.
Real Estate and Investments
The real estate market displayed notable trends. Property sales in the top 8 cities dipped by 1% to 95,547 units during Q3 2025, but the value of those sales jumped by 14%. Housing prices in Delhi-NCR surged by 24% between July and September 2025. Financial experts highlighted investment in real estate, gold, or stocks and advised homebuyers to take the often-overlooked step of planning to prevent family disputes later. Furthermore, the market outlook included the potential for a housing boom in areas like Panvel, Ulwe, and Kharghar due to the nearing launch of Navi Mumbai International Airport.
Tax and Regulatory Updates
Several tax-related updates were released. The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) extended the deadline for the tax audit to October 31. Information was also given on the tax implications of equity gifts for children, as well as the taxation of home loans for retirees. Taxpayers experienced delays in receiving their ITR refunds, which highlighted the need to track the status online. The government intends to amend the Companies Act and tender rules to improve the status of Indian audit firms against the Big 4. Furthermore, the GST annual return filing for FY25 was enabled, along with new rules and compliance tips.
Gold and Silver Market
The gold and silver markets showed interesting dynamics. Gold prices rose, reaching record highs, prompting investors to consider various investment options like physical gold, ETFs, and SGBs. Morgan Stanley reported that Indian households hold gold worth $3.8 trillion, which is nearly 88% of the country's GDP. Experts predicted that gold and silver prices might soon drop. Silver ETFs are proving beneficial for investors, with returns doubling. During Diwali, there may have been a silver shortage in India due to a 42% drop in imports.
