Economic Growth Forecast
Recent economic indicators project a strong growth trajectory for India. Moody’s forecasts India's growth at 7.3% in fiscal year 2026, a positive outlook
amidst global uncertainties. Additionally, the IMF has upgraded India's growth forecast to 7.3% for the same year, solidifying the nation's position as a robust economy. SBI Research anticipates India achieving upper middle-income status by 2030, with a $5-trillion economy expected within two years. These forecasts illustrate the country's resilience and potential for sustained economic expansion. The confluence of these projections signals strong confidence in India's economic health and future development.
Market & Sector Analysis
Multiple sectors demonstrate remarkable performance and promising prospects. The real estate sector saw a surge in capital inflows, with a 25% increase to a record $14.3 billion in 2025, according to CBRE. Industrial and warehousing demand increased by 16% in 2025. In the financial sector, HDFC Bank's Q3 results showed a 11.4% year-over-year increase in net profit, reaching Rs 18,653.75 crore, and Yes Bank reported a 55.4% rise in net profit, reaching Rs 952 crore. The rise in silver prices, now exceeding Rs 3 lakh, is also a notable market development, reflecting investors' interest in precious metals. Experts suggest that the railway sector, along with auto and telecom, requires key reforms, especially as the budget is nearing.
Budget 2026 Expectations
The upcoming Budget 2026 is a key focus, with several expectations from different sectors. The real estate industry is calling for tax relief and stable policies. Experts also anticipate that the government may cap the fiscal deficit at 4.3% and push for medium-term debt consolidation, according to ICRA. Moreover, the auto industry is seeking incentives for electric vehicles and clarity on GST 2.0-related issues. Tax experts propose higher deductions and relief on the 30% tax slab. The potential for joint tax filing for married couples is also being discussed, and several other reforms are anticipated, aiming to boost economic activity and ease of doing business.
Market Volatility & Trends
The stock market has displayed volatility, with the Sensex falling over 1,400 points in two days and the Nifty50 dipping below 25,200. This downturn highlights the impact of various factors influencing market dynamics. Furthermore, the Rupee has slid to a record low of 91.19 against the dollar, potentially influenced by several external and internal market dynamics. Meanwhile, the silver market has seen a record rally, with prices hitting new global highs. The gold market also witnessed strong performance, with prices rising to new records, driven by various global factors. These trends signify the need for investors to watch the market's fluctuating conditions.
Tax, Refunds & Policy
There are key developments and challenges in the tax and refund processing domain. Many taxpayers are still awaiting their income tax refunds, with delays being reported for the fiscal year 2024-25. The Income Tax Department has issued notices to address the causes of delays. The government is also working on policy implementations, with the RBI launching an Integrated Ombudsman Scheme 2026, aimed at improving grievance redressal from July 1. Additionally, the EPFO is preparing to roll out version 3.0, including UPI withdrawals and an updated portal for easier PF services. These developments highlight the government's efforts to enhance tax processes and financial services.
IPO, Investment & Banking
Several initial public offerings (IPOs) are under the spotlight, including Gabion Technologies and Bharat Coking Coal. Shadowfax's IPO saw a 0.10x subscription, and Avana Electrosystems' IPO received a subscription of 38.9x, indicating investor interest in the market. Several banks are also demonstrating performance and changes. For example, ICICI Bank's Q3 results saw a 4% year-over-year decline in net profit to Rs 11,317.86 crore, while RBL Bank reported a significant increase in net profit, rising 5.5x to Rs 214 crore. HDFC Bank has altered its debit card lounge access rules, showing adjustments in customer service. Banks are preparing for possible closures as employees may strike to demand a five-day work week.
