GDP Growth Forecast
India's GDP is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years. Projections estimate a robust expansion in the financial year 2025-26, despite existing
global pressures. The government's first advance estimates point towards a 7.4% GDP growth for FY2025-26, highlighting the economy's resilience. Furthermore, India Ratings anticipates a 6.9% GDP growth in FY27, citing government reform measures as a key driver. Dun & Bradstreet forecasts a 6.6% growth in FY27, indicating a sustained positive economic trajectory, although with slight variations in the predicted figures.
Real Estate Dynamics
The real estate sector in India is experiencing notable shifts. Data indicates a robust market with increasing activity in specific segments. A significant jump was observed in housing launches during Q4 2025 in Delhi-NCR, rising by 39% quarter-on-quarter. The mid-segment led the supply, which indicates a growing demand in that category. Furthermore, the Indian real estate market is set to attract approximately $3.5 billion in investments within the next three years, driven by the retail boom. Additionally, a strong outlook for 2026 continues to push Indian homebuyers towards premium, branded homes.
Market Fluctuations
The Indian stock market has shown some volatility recently. On January 9, there was a decline in the Sensex and Nifty, affected by several factors. The Sensex fell by 604 points, marking its worst week since September 2025. Similarly, on the same day, the Nifty slipped below 25,700, reflecting market concerns. The Nifty metal index was also impacted, seeing a decrease of 2.5%, influenced by the decline in Hindustan Zinc and NALCO shares. Additionally, gold prices fluctuated, with a fall observed on January 7 and a rise on January 9 in various cities, affecting gold rates across different purity levels.
Investment Trends
The investment landscape in India is evolving, with significant shifts observed in various asset classes. Equity inflows decreased by 6% in December, as per AMFI data. However, there was a notable surge of 211% in gold ETF investments during the same period. The Indian gold ETFs saw their highest-ever monthly inflows, reaching $1.25 billion. Furthermore, the launch of a gold ETF Fund of Fund for 2026 investors by Wealth Company demonstrates the growing interest in gold as an investment avenue. The trend shows that despite market volatility, investors continue to diversify their portfolios.
Tax and Regulatory Updates
Several changes in tax policies are scheduled to come into effect, impacting taxpayers. The government has set February 1, 2026, as the date for the Union Budget presentation. A new income tax law is set to roll out starting April 2026, which will affect tax filing for many. Taxpayers are advised to link their PAN with Aadhaar by the set deadlines to avoid complications. There is a deadline of December 31 for the revised ITR for the assessment year 2025-26, which tax filers should be aware of. Also, the government has imposed excise duty on cigarettes and pan masala from February 1st, potentially increasing the cost per stick.
Banking and Finance
The financial sector showcases strength with some interesting developments. RBI data highlighted that Indian banks showed strength during 2024–25 with a double-digit growth and falling NPAs. Karur Vysya Bank launched a Capital Gains Account for tax relief, providing options for investors. ICICI Bank also introduced a Capital Gains Account Scheme to assist taxpayers in claiming exemptions and earning interest. Furthermore, personal loan growth in India has surged, reaching 35% in 2025, driven mainly by small-ticket loans. These initiatives and growth metrics illustrate a vibrant and growing financial services sector in India.
IPO Market Activity
The Indian IPO market is witnessing a surge in activity, marking a busy period. Record numbers of IPOs have positioned India at the top globally. The primary market is anticipating raising around Rs 4 lakh crore in 2026. Several IPOs are making headlines with high subscription rates, such as Gabion Technologies, which received a subscription of 209.45x, and E to E Transportation Infra. Bharat Coking Coal IPO opened on January 9 and was fully subscribed within an hour. This indicates a robust market appetite and investor enthusiasm for new offerings, suggesting that companies are keen on utilizing the market.
Other Key Trends
Additional noteworthy trends are unfolding across several sectors. Home loan interest rates are being compared in December to reflect the best offers provided by lenders. The rupee has seen fluctuations, closing below the 90-mark, at 89.87 against the US dollar. There is a significant move in the real estate sector as REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) market in India has already reached Rs 2.3 lakh crore, and has overtaken Hong Kong in only six years. The potential for crude oil prices to decline to $50 a barrel by June 2026 could benefit inflation and the rupee. These developments signal constant market dynamics.
