Growth & Forecasts
Multiple forecasts point towards a strong growth trajectory for India. Moody's sees India growing at 7.3% in FY26. The IMF has upgraded India's growth forecast to 7.3% for 2025.
SBI Research projects India to become an upper-middle-income country by 2030, aiming for a $5-trillion economy in two years. These projections signal robust economic activity ahead.
Budget 2026 Anticipation
Expectations are high for Budget 2026, with the government potentially targeting a fiscal deficit cap of 4.3% and pushing medium-term debt consolidation, according to ICRA. Experts are looking at potential reforms across sectors such as auto, telecom, railways, and defense, as flagged by Morgan Stanley. The real estate sector is calling for tax relief and stable policies. Discussions are also focused on whether joint taxation for married couples will be implemented. KPMG is calling for tax clarity and faster dispute resolution for ease of doing business.
Sectoral Performance
Several sectors are demonstrating positive momentum. The real estate sector saw capital inflows surge by 25% to a record $14.3 billion in 2025, according to CBRE. Industrial and warehousing demand increased by 16% in 2025. The auto industry is seeking incentives for EVs and clarity on GST. Banking sector data reveals that ICICI Bank’s net profit fell 4% YoY to Rs 11,317.86 crore, while PNB's net profit rose 11.6% YoY to Rs 5,189.8 crore.
Market Trends
The stock market has shown volatility, with the Sensex falling over 1,400 points in two days and the Nifty50 dropping below 25,200. Experts are analyzing whether Dalal Street will extend its losing streak. Silver prices hit record highs, with gains of over 8% in Silver ETFs. Gold and silver prices continued to rise. The Rupee slid to a record low of 91.19 against the dollar, driven by factors yet to be fully understood.
Banking & Finance
Several banks released their Q3 results. Yes Bank saw a net profit surge of 55.4% YoY to Rs 952 crore. RBL Bank's net profit skyrocketed 5.5x to Rs 214 crore. HDFC Bank's net profit rose 11.4% YoY to Rs 18,653.75 crore, and NII was up 6.4%. Additionally, there are changes in banking operations, such as HDFC Bank modifying its debit card lounge access rules, with new rules going into effect. Karur Vysya Bank has launched a Capital Gains Account for tax relief.
Investment Insights
Investors are keen on opportunities in different areas. Analysis includes exploring the potential of flexi-cap funds, with top schemes gaining popularity. Experts are considering dividend stocks like Angel One, ICICI Prudential, Havells, and PSU banks. Silver prices are at a record, and if an investor invested Rs 1 lakh a year ago, they would have made significant profit by now.
Other Developments
Various other developments are also noteworthy. The DIGIDHAN Mission drove a 41% CAGR, and digital payments reached 22,831 crore in FY25, according to government data. The EPFO 3.0 rollout is coming soon, with UPI withdrawals, a new portal, and easier PF services. The RBI has launched an Integrated Ombudsman Scheme 2026, with grievance redressal going live from July 1.
