The Unstoppable Rise of Premium Property
On the surface, the data paints a picture of a real estate market dominated entirely by high-end transactions. According to a recent report from ASSOCHAM and Knight Frank, the share of homes sold for over Rs 1 crore has skyrocketed from just 18% in 2018
to a commanding 84% in the first half of 2026. This trend is driven by several powerful forces: rising household incomes, a growing preference for larger homes with better amenities post-pandemic, and significant investment from High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs) and Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) seeking stable assets. Developers have responded in kind, focusing their resources on launching premium projects where margins are higher, leading to a market that has shifted from volume-based growth to value-led expansion. This is further supported by major infrastructure upgrades like the Dwarka Expressway and Noida International Airport, which have enhanced connectivity and boosted the appeal of premium residential corridors.
The Key Qualification: A Tale of Two NCRs
Here’s the qualification that changes everything: the term 'NCR' can be misleading. The 84% figure is not uniformly distributed across the entire National Capital Region. Instead, it is heavily skewed by a handful of hyper-active, high-value micro-markets. Gurugram, in particular, acts as the engine for this trend. Corridors like Golf Course Road, Golf Course Extension Road, and the Southern Peripheral Road (SPR) account for a disproportionate share of these high-ticket sales. In the first half of 2025, for instance, Gurugram alone accounted for 91% of Delhi-NCR's luxury home sales. This concentration means that while premium properties in these specific Gurugram belts are booming, the picture in other parts of the NCR—like Ghaziabad, Faridabad, or even many sectors of Noida—is vastly different. The headline statistic, therefore, reflects a boom in specific zones rather than an all-encompassing trend across the region.
What This Means for the Average Homebuyer
The intense focus on the premium segment has profound consequences for the rest of the market. For the average homebuyer looking for a property under the Rs 1 crore mark, the options are shrinking. The supply of new affordable housing has dwindled significantly. Data shows that the launch share of affordable homes in NCR plunged from 62% in 2020 to just 5% by mid-2025. This is because developers face a margin arbitrage, where premium projects are far more profitable than affordable ones, especially with rising land and construction costs. As a result, affordability has become a major challenge. Knight Frank's H1 2026 assessment found NCR's affordability ratio stood at 67%, indicating that property acquisition is increasingly difficult for a majority of households. The market is effectively bifurcating into a high-supply luxury segment and a low-supply affordable segment, making it harder for first-time buyers to get a foothold.
Is This a Bubble or a New Normal?
The dominance of premium housing appears to be a structural shift rather than a temporary bubble. The demand from affluent buyers remains robust, and with limited new land available in prime locations, developers are likely to continue prioritizing high-value projects. Gurugram's luxury market, in particular, demonstrates deep demand, even surpassing Mumbai in sales over Rs 10 crore in 2025. However, this value concentration comes at a price. While overall residential sales volume in NCR grew by a modest 7% between 2015 and 2025, home prices surged by an incredible 193%. This gap between price growth and sales volume highlights an unhealthy market dynamic where value is concentrated in the hands of a few, while the broader market struggles with supply and affordability issues. The future of the NCR market will likely be a story of two cities: one of soaring luxury values in select corridors, and another where the dream of homeownership becomes more distant for the average citizen.
