An Astonishing Market Transformation
Recent data paints a picture of a real estate market that has fundamentally changed. A report from industry body ASSOCHAM and Knight Frank Research confirms this massive shift: in 2018, properties priced above Rs 1 crore constituted just 18% of residential
sales in the NCR. By the first half of 2026, that figure had ballooned to an incredible 84%. This indicates that the vast majority of housing transactions in one of India's largest markets now fall into the premium category. This isn't a minor fluctuation; it represents a complete realignment of the market's centre of gravity towards high-value properties. The trend is so pronounced that other reports note nearly three-quarters of all homes sold in the region during early 2026 were in this bracket, driven by sustained demand from affluent homebuyers.
The Key Qualification: Value, Not Volume
Here is the crucial context mentioned in the headline. The 84% figure primarily reflects the concentration of market value, not a massive surge in the number of homes being sold overall. The same report that highlights this jump describes the phenomenon as “value concentration rather than volume expansion”. In fact, over the last decade, while prices have soared, the total volume of residential sales in NCR grew by a modest 7%. In some recent periods, sales have even declined. This means that while more money is being spent on premium homes, the overall activity in the market has remained relatively stagnant. The market isn't necessarily broader or more active; it's just that the transactions taking place are increasingly skewed towards the expensive end of the spectrum.
The Main Driver: A 193% Price Surge
So, how did the market become so top-heavy? The primary reason is unprecedented price appreciation. Between 2015 and 2025, home prices across the NCR surged by a staggering 193%. This massive increase, the sharpest among India's major metro markets, has single-handedly pushed a large number of properties that were once considered mid-range into the Rs 1 crore-plus bracket. A home that might have cost Rs 70-80 lakh a few years ago could easily be valued at over Rs 1 crore today due to this inflation alone. This price growth has been fuelled by several factors, including rising input and labour costs, infrastructure development in key corridors like the Dwarka Expressway, and strong demand from high-net-worth individuals (HNIs) and Non-Resident Indians (NRIs).
Fewer New Homes, Especially Affordable Ones
The other side of the coin is supply. While prices were tripling, the number of new residential project launches in the NCR actually declined by 20% over the same ten-year period. Developers, seeing strong demand and higher profit margins in the luxury segment, have increasingly focused their efforts there. This has led to a significant drop in the supply of new affordable and mid-segment housing. Some data from mid-2026 shows new launches fell by as much as 40% year-on-year in one quarter, even as sales remained more resilient, indicating that demand is outpacing the addition of new supply. This scarcity, particularly at lower price points, further concentrates market activity in the premium segment, as that is what is being built and is most readily available.
What This Means for Homebuyers
This dramatic market shift has created a widening gap between different types of buyers. For HNIs and those looking to upgrade, the market is full of premium options with modern amenities. Developers are catering directly to this demand for larger, higher-quality homes. However, for first-time homebuyers and those in the mid-income bracket, the landscape has become significantly more challenging. The sharp decline in affordable housing launches and the overall price surge mean that entry into the NCR's property market is more difficult than ever. The report notes that this skew towards higher-value properties could price out a significant share of end-users, creating a K-shaped market where the top end thrives while the rest of the market struggles to keep up.
