The Sheer Scale of Expansion
A recent report from Global Energy Monitor, an NGO that tracks energy projects, reveals that India is almost single-handedly driving an increase in the global pipeline of proposed coal mines. According to the findings, India's planned new coal mining
capacity nearly doubled in 2025, rising to 638 million metric tons per annum (mtpa) from 329 mtpa the previous year. This surge from India accounted for most of the 11% growth in the global coal project pipeline, which now stands at over 2,500 mtpa. The report pinpoints the eastern states of Jharkhand and Odisha as the epicentres of this expansion, where proposals for new mines have doubled. This push aligns with the Indian Ministry of Coal's ambitious targets to significantly boost domestic production to meet rising energy demands.
The Driving Force: Energy Security
The primary justification for this massive coal expansion is the nation's urgent need for energy security. India’s economy is expanding rapidly, and electricity demand is soaring, intensified by more frequent and severe heatwaves that increase the need for cooling. The government aims to ensure a stable and affordable power supply to support this growth and prevent energy shortages. The plan is to increase coal production to nearly 1.15 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 fiscal year to meet this rising demand. For policymakers, a robust domestic coal supply is seen as a reliable backbone for the power grid, especially as the country navigates the complexities of integrating intermittent renewable energy sources on a large scale. This focus is a strategic move to reduce reliance on imported fuels and maintain economic competitiveness.
A Collision Course with Climate Goals
This planned coal boom appears to be on a direct collision course with India’s international climate pledges. Under the Paris Agreement, India has committed to achieving about 50% of its cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel-based sources by 2030. The country has also set a long-term goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2070. While India has made significant strides in renewable energy, ranking fourth globally in installed capacity, the continued reliance on coal complicates this narrative. Although wind and solar generated more electricity than coal globally for the first time in 2025, India's power generation remains dominated by coal, which accounts for about 75% of the electricity produced. Critics and environmental groups warn that locking in decades of new coal production could create stranded assets and make the transition to clean energy far more difficult and expensive.
The Bigger Energy Picture
India's energy strategy is a tale of two parallel tracks. Even as it expands its coal pipeline, the country is also a world leader in the growth of renewables. According to some reports, India has already achieved its 2030 target of having 50% of its installed power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources, years ahead of schedule. Furthermore, investment in renewable energy projects is surging, and India boasts some of the lowest renewable tariffs in the world. However, installed capacity is different from actual generation. The sheer volume of electricity needed means that even with rapid renewable growth, coal is still required to fill the gap, especially during peak demand. The challenge lies in accelerating the deployment of clean energy and battery storage solutions to a scale where they can reliably displace the fossil fuel base, a transition that requires immense investment and policy intervention.
