The Evidence of a Top-Heavy Market
The data paints a clear picture of a market tilting dramatically towards the high end. According to a recent report from ASSOCHAM and Knight Frank, homes priced above ₹1 crore accounted for a staggering 84% of all residential sales in the NCR during the first
half of 2026. This is a monumental shift from 2018, when the same premium segment represented just 18% of sales. Over a decade (2015-2025), while home prices in the region shot up by 193%, the total number of new homes launched actually fell by 20%. This trend, described as "value concentration rather than volume expansion," shows that the market's growth is driven by higher-priced properties, not by an increase in the overall number of homes available.
Why Developers Are Chasing Luxury
The pivot to premium is not happening in a vacuum; it's a calculated business decision. Developers are finding the economics of affordable and mid-segment housing increasingly unviable. Soaring land acquisition costs, rising prices for essential construction materials like steel and cement, and slow approval processes have squeezed profit margins in the affordable category. In contrast, the luxury segment offers healthier returns and caters to a resilient class of buyers—including high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), non-resident Indians (NRIs), and startup founders—who are less sensitive to interest rate hikes and inflation. As one developer noted, builders are simply responding to where demand is strongest and where projects are financially sustainable, and right now, that is the premium end.
The Dwindling Mass-Market Supply
The direct consequence of this strategic shift is a deepening supply crisis for the mass market. The share of new homes launched in the affordable category (priced below ₹50 lakh) has plummeted nationwide, from 52% in 2018 to just 17% by the end of last year. NCR has been identified as one of the markets worst-hit by this decline. Data from ANAROCK shows that new housing launches in NCR dropped by a sharp 40% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year, with Noida and Greater Noida seeing a staggering 72% fall. Even as sales outpaced new supply, the new stock being added is almost exclusively in the premium category, leaving a significant void where it's needed most.
A Widening Gap for the Average Homebuyer
This tale of two markets—a thriving luxury segment and a starved affordable one—has profound implications. For a vast majority of the population, including salaried professionals and dual-income families, the dream of homeownership in prime NCR locations is becoming a privilege rather than an achievable goal. While high-paying jobs continue to draw people to corporate hubs like Gurugram, housing prices have consistently outpaced income growth. This creates an affordability gap, pushing potential buyers into longer commutes from peripheral areas or forcing them to remain in the rental market, where costs are also rising. Unless the housing supply expands across a wider range of price points, this gap between who can work in NCR and who can afford to live there will remain one of the region's most significant urban challenges.
