The Global Picture: Who Is Still Building?
While many nations are phasing out coal, a handful of countries are driving a significant expansion in new coal-fired capacity. According to a 2026 report from Global Energy Monitor, the development of new coal power is becoming increasingly concentrated.
As of 2026, 96% of coal capacity under development is located in just ten countries, with China and India alone accounting for nearly 90% of that pipeline. Reports in 2025 and early 2026 highlighted that China and India were responsible for 95% of newly commissioned coal plants. This build-out is occurring for reasons of energy security and to meet rapidly growing electricity demand. China, for example, is set to bring a massive 55 GW of new coal power online in 2026 alone. This surge in construction is happening even as renewable energy sources like solar and wind are also expanding at a record pace in these same countries.
What 'Locking In Emissions' Actually Means
The core of the analysts' warning is the concept of "carbon lock-in." Coal-fired power plants are immense infrastructure projects designed to operate for 30 to 40 years to be economically viable. Once a country invests billions in constructing a new plant, there is a powerful incentive to keep it running for its entire intended lifespan to recoup the costs. This means that a plant built today could still be pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in the 2060s. According to the World Resources Institute, the committed emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure could be enough to consume the world's entire remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. This makes every new coal plant a long-term commitment to a high-carbon future, creating a direct conflict with climate goals set under agreements like the Paris Accord, which requires all coal plants to be retired by 2040.
India’s Energy Dilemma
India finds itself in a particularly complex position. The nation is the world's third-largest carbon emitter and has a pressing need to supply affordable power to a growing population and a rapidly industrialising economy. As a result, coal is projected to remain the mainstay of India's energy system until at least 2030. Recent reports show India is aggressively expanding domestic coal production to fuel this demand and reduce reliance on imports. However, India has also made significant strides in renewable energy, ranking fourth globally in cumulative capacity and achieving its target of 50% non-fossil fuel installed power capacity years ahead of schedule. Despite this, coal still generates about 75% of the country's electricity. The challenge, as highlighted by analysts, is that while new renewable capacity is coming online, it is struggling to keep pace with soaring demand, particularly during extreme heatwaves, leaving the country still heavily reliant on its coal fleet.
A Collision Course with Climate Goals
The continued investment in coal creates a direct collision with global climate targets. Analysts from organisations like the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Global Energy Monitor repeatedly state that a rapid phase-out of unabated coal power is essential to limit the worst impacts of climate change. While global coal-fired generation is forecast to see slight declines by 2030, this is not happening fast enough. The IEA projects that renewables will become the world's largest source of electricity in 2026, overtaking coal. However, the sheer volume of new coal capacity being added, particularly in Asia, threatens to offset these gains. The persistence of coal is often framed as a necessity for grid stability and energy security, especially as a backup for intermittent renewables. Yet, critics argue this is an outdated rationale, locking in pollution and economic risks as clean energy becomes cheaper.
