What is the story about?
Google’s Gemini is no longer an AI challenger struggling to keep pace with OpenAI’s ChatGPT. It is now emerging as the most credible counterweight in the global AI race, powered not just by model improvements but by Alphabet’s unmatched distribution and a massive capital push into AI infrastructure.
Launched in late 2023, Gemini has expanded its share of the global AI chatbot market to around 14% by December 2025, up from single digits a year earlier. ChatGPT continues to dominate with over 70% market share, but the growth trajectories of the two platforms are now sharply diverging.
Distribution Advantage Starts to Show
Gemini’s rise is being driven less by virality and more by distribution at scale. Unlike standalone AI apps, Gemini is deeply embedded across Google’s ecosystem — Search, Android, YouTube, Gmail and Workspace — giving it default access to billions of users globally.
That advantage is now translating into usage. Gemini’s monthly active users have surged to an estimated 450–650 million, up from under 100 million in 2024. Between August and November alone, usage climbed nearly 30%, even as ChatGPT’s growth slowed to low single digits.
Analysts estimate Gemini is currently adding users at six times the rate of its closest rivals. With more than 2.5 billion Android devices in circulation worldwide, even light daily engagement is enough to drive scale rapidly — something competitors without a comparable ecosystem struggle to match.
Technology and Cost Turn Into Differentiators
The momentum has been reinforced by a step-change in technology. Google’s Gemini 3, launched in November 2025, topped most major multimodal reasoning benchmarks, improved accuracy, and added real-time audio and video interaction.
Crucially, Gemini is trained and deployed entirely on Google’s in-house Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). This has allowed Alphabet to cut inference costs and power consumption compared to Nvidia-dependent rivals — a difference that is now becoming visible in enterprise adoption.
Industry estimates suggest Gemini’s APIs are 60–65% cheaper than comparable OpenAI models. As a result, Google’s share of the enterprise large language model (LLM) market has jumped from 7% in 2023 to over 20% in 2025, positioning Gemini as a serious contender in corporate AI deployments.
Alphabet’s $93 Billion AI Bet
All of this is underpinned by Alphabet’s scale and spending power. The company has guided to up to $93 billion in AI capital expenditure for 2025, largely directed towards AI data centres, advanced networking and custom silicon.
That spending makes Google one of the world’s largest investors in AI infrastructure — a long-term strategy aimed at locking in cost advantages, improving performance and ensuring capacity as AI adoption accelerates.
The aggressive build-out has not gone unnoticed by rivals. According to reports, OpenAI has internally declared a “code red”, reflecting concern over Google’s ability to distribute Gemini seamlessly across its ecosystem at global scale.
Also Read | Google, the sleeping giant in global AI race, now 'fully awake'
A Shift Inside Google
There is also a symbolic change underway inside Alphabet. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has returned to hands-on technical work and is now a core contributor to the Gemini project — a signal that AI has become central to Google’s long-term strategy.
ChatGPT remains the market leader by a wide margin. But Gemini’s rapid rise underscores a broader shift in the AI race. This is no longer just about who builds the best model; it is increasingly about who controls distribution, manages costs, and owns the ecosystem.
On those fronts, Google’s AI giant is no longer asleep — and the gap is narrowing.
Also Read | Don't blindly trust everything AI tells you, cautions Google boss Sundar Pichai
Launched in late 2023, Gemini has expanded its share of the global AI chatbot market to around 14% by December 2025, up from single digits a year earlier. ChatGPT continues to dominate with over 70% market share, but the growth trajectories of the two platforms are now sharply diverging.
Distribution Advantage Starts to Show
Gemini’s rise is being driven less by virality and more by distribution at scale. Unlike standalone AI apps, Gemini is deeply embedded across Google’s ecosystem — Search, Android, YouTube, Gmail and Workspace — giving it default access to billions of users globally.
That advantage is now translating into usage. Gemini’s monthly active users have surged to an estimated 450–650 million, up from under 100 million in 2024. Between August and November alone, usage climbed nearly 30%, even as ChatGPT’s growth slowed to low single digits.
Analysts estimate Gemini is currently adding users at six times the rate of its closest rivals. With more than 2.5 billion Android devices in circulation worldwide, even light daily engagement is enough to drive scale rapidly — something competitors without a comparable ecosystem struggle to match.
Technology and Cost Turn Into Differentiators
The momentum has been reinforced by a step-change in technology. Google’s Gemini 3, launched in November 2025, topped most major multimodal reasoning benchmarks, improved accuracy, and added real-time audio and video interaction.
Crucially, Gemini is trained and deployed entirely on Google’s in-house Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). This has allowed Alphabet to cut inference costs and power consumption compared to Nvidia-dependent rivals — a difference that is now becoming visible in enterprise adoption.
Industry estimates suggest Gemini’s APIs are 60–65% cheaper than comparable OpenAI models. As a result, Google’s share of the enterprise large language model (LLM) market has jumped from 7% in 2023 to over 20% in 2025, positioning Gemini as a serious contender in corporate AI deployments.
Alphabet’s $93 Billion AI Bet
All of this is underpinned by Alphabet’s scale and spending power. The company has guided to up to $93 billion in AI capital expenditure for 2025, largely directed towards AI data centres, advanced networking and custom silicon.
That spending makes Google one of the world’s largest investors in AI infrastructure — a long-term strategy aimed at locking in cost advantages, improving performance and ensuring capacity as AI adoption accelerates.
The aggressive build-out has not gone unnoticed by rivals. According to reports, OpenAI has internally declared a “code red”, reflecting concern over Google’s ability to distribute Gemini seamlessly across its ecosystem at global scale.
Also Read | Google, the sleeping giant in global AI race, now 'fully awake'
A Shift Inside Google
There is also a symbolic change underway inside Alphabet. Google co-founder Sergey Brin has returned to hands-on technical work and is now a core contributor to the Gemini project — a signal that AI has become central to Google’s long-term strategy.
ChatGPT remains the market leader by a wide margin. But Gemini’s rapid rise underscores a broader shift in the AI race. This is no longer just about who builds the best model; it is increasingly about who controls distribution, manages costs, and owns the ecosystem.
On those fronts, Google’s AI giant is no longer asleep — and the gap is narrowing.
Also Read | Don't blindly trust everything AI tells you, cautions Google boss Sundar Pichai
