By Emma Rumney
LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Big brewers and their shareholders are hoping for some 2026 cheer, betting soccer's World Cup and a pivot to soft drinks can help overcome challenges from geopolitical turbulence, health-conscious Gen Z youth and cost of living crises.
Heineken this week announced plans to cut up to 6,000 jobs over two years. Carlsberg warned of another gloomy year for consumer spending and trade war risks, and Budweiser-maker Anheuser-Busch InBev posted its lowest profit growth
since 2020. All three saw volumes fall.
But, shares in the three biggest European brewers, which have a combined $114 billion in annual sales, have gained ground, as investors bet this year cannot be as tough as 2025.
"We have a very good year in terms of opportunities to activate," AB InBev CEO Michel Doukeris told investors on Thursday, flagging an expected boost from events like the June-July soccer World Cup in the U.S., Mexico and Canada and fast growth from non-beer and low-alcohol products.
Tough conditions in key markets like China and Brazil, where bad weather has hit sales in recent months, were easing, he added, making 2026 look rosier after "a very complicated" 2025.
A slump in beer sales in 2025 compounded years of falling or stagnant growth, leaving Heineken's beer volumes down 8.6%, AB InBev's down 6.5% and Carlsberg's down more than 3% since 2022.
YEAR AHEAD LOOKS BETTER AFTER 'HORRIFIC' 2025
Analysts hope beer volumes could turn positive this year, on average expecting 0.4% growth at AB InBev, 1.1% at Heineken and 3% at Carlsberg.
"Generally, I think 2026 could be a much better year in terms of volume growth," said Javier Gonzalez Lastra, analyst at Berenberg, adding that 2025 "was pretty horrific" for Heineken.
Danish peer Carlsberg has benefitted from a very aggressive push into drinks other than beer, namely through the $4.2 billion acquisition of soft drinks maker Britvic completed last year, which has helped it offset weak demand for its brews.
CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen flagged a 2026 boost from sports, the integration of a Pepsi business in Kazakhstan and a more positive environment in markets like India and Vietnam, saying he expects revenue and volume growth this year.
"We have plenty of reasons to be optimistic," he told reporters.
Steve Minnaar, portfolio manager at AB InBev investor Abax Investments, cautioned however that trends in the industry remained tough, even if there were early signs of revival.
"We're not overly optimistic about it," he said. "I wouldn't say (things are) more positive, but less negative."
(Reporting by Emma Rumney; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Elaine Hardcastle)
