By Chris Prentice and Mariam Sunny
April 29 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly investors will be searching for something they won't find in any first-quarter financial figures reported on Thursday: insight into the launch of weight-loss pill Foundayo.
U.S. sales of the hotly anticipated obesity offering, a rival to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill, began in early April, so Foundayo data will not be included in Lilly's first-quarter financials. Several more weeks of prescription data is likely needed to determine Foundayo's
early sales trajectory, one investor said.
But the pill will still be top of mind, especially with initial data prompting some analysts to say Foundayo's launch is lagging Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy, which hit the market in January.
"We’re two weeks into the launch, so it is really too early in my view to make a concrete call on the strength of the launch," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman. "You're really going to want to listen to how CEO Dave Ricks frames how the launch is going."
The initial data may not capture direct-to-consumer sales, and investors typically need five to six weeks of data for a proper read, said Lilly investor Terence McManus of Bellevue Asset Management in Zurich.
Lilly's share price has fallen 19% so far this year, as investors weigh the company's ability to meet lofty expectations for its obesity franchise that also includes injected Zepbound in the U.S. and Mounjaro, which is used for both diabetes and weight loss outside the U.S.
Strong international demand for the Indianapolis-based drugmaker's diabetes and obesity medicines are expected to bolster a 26% rise in revenue forecast by analysts, according to LSEG data.
Last year, Novo and Lilly began selling their obesity drugs in India.
Sales of Lilly's Mounjaro doubled in the months after launch, making it the highest-selling drug in the world's most populous nation.
However, demand is expected to face pressure after Indian drugmakers started selling cheaper generic versions of Novo's injectable Wegovy last month.
On Tuesday, Canada approved the first generic version of Novo's Ozempic, an injectable diabetes medicine often used off label for weight loss. Novo is due to report quarterly results on May 6.
INTERNATIONAL SALES IN FOCUS
Investors will also be closely eyeing the mix of pricing and demand for the popular GLP-1 drugs both in the U.S. and global markets.
"It's possible that over time people are underestimating the ex-U.S. component" for these products, Bellevue's McManus said.
McManus said he expects the price of the drugs outside the U.S. to be higher due to the White House's effort to peg American drug costs to those in other wealthy countries and a growing shift toward the cash-pay market.
Outside of the specific pricing deals struck with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, Americans typically pay three times more for prescription medicines than patients elsewhere in the world.
But Lilly has the ability to narrow pricing gaps in cash-pay markets, such as the Middle East, Brazil and China, said BMO's Seigerman.
Lilly raised the UK list price of Mounjaro by up to 170% last year as drugmakers navigate policy changes in the United States, by far the most lucrative market.
In the U.S., concerns over uncertainty around federal reimbursement for obesity drugs remain one of the "sources of angst" for investors, said Kevin Gade, chief operating officer at Bahl & Gaynor, which holds Lilly shares.
The U.S. government has delayed a Medicare pilot covering such products after major health insurers including UnitedHealth and CVS Health's Aetna signaled reluctance to participate.
A temporary program running from July 2026 through December 2027 that was meant to act as a bridge to the pilot will preserve coverage at prices negotiated last year.
(Reporting by Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru and Chris Prentice in New York; Editing by Caroline Humer and Bill Berkrot)
