By Toby Sterling and Nathan Vifflin
AMSTERDAM, April 14 (Reuters) - Investors in, Europe’s most valuable listed company, are betting the chip-equipment maker can raise financial forecasts when it reports first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, as demand for artificial intelligence chips keeps orders for its machines running flat out.
Shares in the Netherlands-based company have risen more than 40% so far this year, lifted by the rapid construction of data centres and booming demand for cutting-edge chips
from customers such as Nvidia, which rely on ASML's tools.
ASML supplies lithography machines to chipmakers including Taiwan's TSMC, which manufactures processors for Nvidia and Apple. It is the sole maker of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, which are essential to producing the most advanced AI chips.
"We're investing in the picks and shovels of the AI revolution," said equity investment director Richard Carlyle of Capital Group, whose funds hold just over 3% of ASML's shares. He said his firm is closely watching EUV shipment volumes.
CAN ASML KEEP UP WITH DEMAND?
Analysts expect a strong quarter and see scope for ASML to raise its 2026 sales outlook, as memory-chip makers expand capacity to meet AI-driven demand.
Core challenges include whether ASML can keep up with demand for its chip-making tools, which can take more than a year to build, and whether potential new restrictions on exports to China could curb growth.
ASML has forecast first-quarter sales of 8.2 billion to 8.9 billion euros, up from 7.7 billion euros a year earlier, and full-year revenue of 34 billion to 39 billion euros ($40 to $46 billion), compared with 32.7 billion euros in 2024. LSEG-polled analysts expect 8.5 billion euros in first-quarter revenue and 37.6 billion euros for the year.
Several analysts told Reuters they expect ASML to land near the top end of those ranges as customers rush to install previously ordered machines or upgrade existing ones.
"It's no secret that the quarter will be strong", Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero said. "We've had a lot of incremental positive news in the last month, like SK Hynix buying $8 billion in (ASML tools), or Samsung placing around $4-5 billion in orders".
U.S. RULES MAY CURB EXPORTS TO CHINA
ASML discontinued reporting new bookings after last quarter, saying they caused unneeded volatility in its share price on earnings days.
Analysts say that will put more focus on ASML's own sales forecasts, which may be lifted to the top half of its 2026 range.
Longer-term growth assumptions of 6% to 13% annual sales through 2030 were based on the global chip market reaching $1 trillion in annual sales only at the end of that period - a milestone that most now expect the industry to pass this year.
ASML is also a major supplier of less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools, where it faces competition from Japan's Nikon and China's SMEE. Bernstein analyst David Dai said there were questions about whether ASML could keep up with demand in both product lines but "DUV, I'd argue is a bigger constraint".
China is a growing uncertainty for ASML. The country generated around one‑third of group sales in 2025, but that contribution is expected to fall to about 20% this year under existing export limits.
Analysts said new curbs proposed by U.S. Congress, if applied in their strictest form, could eliminate less than half of ASML's residual China sales.
($1 = 0.8533 euros)
(Reporting by Toby Sterling in Amsterdam and Nathan Vifflin in Gdansk. Editing by Adam Jourdan and Louise Heavens)
