By Purvi Agarwal
Aug 26 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of AI bellwether Nvidia's earnings and a closely watched inflation report that could influence interest-rate expectations.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures report is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Economists polled by Reuters expect core PCE to have risen 3.3% in July from a year earlier. A second estimate of economic growth is also due on Wednesday.
The data will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment as equities approach the historically weaker month of September, while also sharpening focus on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday.
Traders have priced in one 25-basis-point rate hike in 2026, according to LSEG data, though an in-line consumer inflation reading has lowered the odds of a September increase.
Another key focus for markets is the quarterly update from AI chip leader Nvidia, widely seen as the next major test of the AI-fueled rally at a time when the slightest hint of slowing growth is being punished.
Anything less than a stellar report from the chip heavyweight could rekindle doubts about the sustainability of the AI boom and set the tone for tech stocks for the rest of the week. Shares of Nvidia, set to report results after markets, were up 0.4% in premarket trading.
"Nvidia has long become the bellwether for AI-related stocks, and its recent underperformance relative to other U.S. semiconductors (is) a clear signal of market concerns about the AI investment-related boom," said Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services.
A cutback on cyclical spending and concentration of Nvidia's revenue streams could overshadow robust results, Ostwald said.
Bumper results could also deepen the divide between software stocks that have taken a beating this year, and semiconductors, which have been capitalized heavily on the AI euphoria.
Shares of Intuit dropped 11.5% after the TurboTax maker forecast annual revenue below Wall Street expectations.
Other software stocks also came under pressure, with Adobe, ServiceNow and Atlassian falling more than 2% each.
At 07:02 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 10 points, or 0.02%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 1.5 points, or 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 E-minis fell 15.75 points, or 0.05%.
Earnings from a slew of consumer companies, too, will be parsed.
Meanwhile, Iran said it has restarted talks with Oman to manage the Strait of Hormuz, improving broader risk appetite.
Worries over higher-for-longer oil prices, rising government debt and inflation expectations had pushed Treasury yields to multi-year highs last week, although they retreated after the Treasury Department announced support measures.
Higher yields hammered tech stocks earlier in the week, but they recovered in the previous session, helping close Wall Street higher.
An uncertain macro environment and short-lived relief from the Treasury's measures have also heightened investor interest on Warsh's speech for clues on the central bank's stance.
"A dovish surprise, focused on weakening growth or labor market risks, would see lower real bond yields, dollar weakness while equities could fare well," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at Carmignac.
"A hawkish surprise, with explicit concern over inflation or a willingness to hike, would push short-term yields higher... A speech leaving investors unconvinced, would see the pressure on the long end intensify."
(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar)
