By Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry
SAO PAULO, March 18 (Reuters) - Brazil could face fertilizer supply problems if the conflict in the Middle East does not ease soon, the nation's farm minister said, criticizing sellers for sharp increases in local urea prices as analysts said farmers may turn to cheaper alternatives.
Agriculture Minister Carlos Favaro said on Tuesday that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran had already triggered urea price increases in Brazil within days, with some sellers even suspending
sales despite holding inventories prior to the conflict.
Market pressures have intensified since late February after joint U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, with shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz rattling the energy and fertilizer industries. Roughly one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passes through the waterway, by some estimates.
Favaro warned that a prolonged conflict could create broader risks for the country's farm sector, which imported a record 45.5 million metric tons of fertilizers in 2025.
"It is a concern, naturally. There is a sense that there is a certain opportunism in the market, after all, stocks already present in Brazil have been repriced. That makes no sense," Favaro said.
StoneX reported prices of urea delivered to Brazil jumped about 35% in two weeks, making the product less attractive to buyers and potentially pushing importers and farmers toward cheaper options such as ammonium sulfate.
The brokerage cited data that showed Brazil's urea imports in the first two months of the year fell 33% from a year earlier, while ammonium sulfate imports rose 19%.
Urea is one of the most widely used nitrogen fertilizers on Brazilian farms because of its high nutrient concentration, which usually justifies its cost. But when prices rise sharply, buyers can switch to cheaper, lower-concentration products.
Lower prices for Brazil's agricultural exports have added to the tough decisions now facing farmers, StoneX analyst Tomas Pernias said in the report.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo and Kylie Madry; Editing by Brad Haynes and Aurora Ellis)
