By Siddharth Cavale
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Unprecedented numbers of Americans are expected to hit stores this Black Friday, but they are likely to curtail their spending as they find fewer bargains from tariff-hit retailers.
Marking the biggest turnout ever for the five-day stretch between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, 186.9 million people will shop, up from 183.4 million last year, the National Retail Federation projects. But sales growth for the last two months of the year, crucial for retailers, is
expected to slow.
"Everything seems to be way more expensive" at malls, said Kate Sanner, a New Yorker who runs an online aggregator for second-hand listings. Last year, Sanner, 33, spent around $500 on gifts, but this season she plans to trim her budget to $300, eschewing most Black Friday discounts for targeted deals on specific products.
Thanksgiving falls on November 27 this year, giving retailers an extra day in the holiday window, which typically accounts for a third of annual profits. Retailers have launched early promotions to lock in sales: Walmart's began on November 14 and will run in three phases through December 1, with Walmart+ members getting early access. Amazon started its Black Friday deals week on Thursday, while Macy's has opened a dedicated Black Friday portal.
Sales in November and December - in physical stores and online – are forecast to top $1 trillion for the first time, rising between 3.7% and 4.2%, but are likely to grow at a slower pace than last year's 4.8% gain, NRF projections show.
SHOPPERS AVOID DIPPING INTO SAVINGS FOR PURCHASES
While the sticker shock alone could deter some buyers, others are budgeting for the increased costs of other necessities.
"Knowing that our healthcare premium bill is going to jump astronomically in 2026 ... all of our discretionary spending has dropped significantly," said Liz Sweeney, founder of marketing agency Dogwood Solutions, who lives in Boise, Idaho.
"While we spent close to $2,000 on gifts in 2024, our 2025 budget is $750," said 52-year-old Sweeney, who is skipping electronics and big buys this year, sticking to shoes, books and kitchenware.
Shoppers still have plenty in the bank, with households across all income levels holding more deposits than they did in 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic, November data from Bank of America data shows. Consumers were also not using a significant portion of their savings, the data showed.
"Consumers are sentimentally weak and fundamentally sound," said Mark Mathews, the NRF's chief economist. "U.S. household balance sheets are still strong."
The federation estimates average spending on gifts and seasonal items such as decorations, cards, food and candy will reach $890 per person, slightly less than last year's $902. Nearly two-thirds of the 8,427 consumers polled say they will wait for Thanksgiving weekend deals, up from 59% in 2024, with older shoppers driving the trend.
'DEFINITELY SEEN FEWER PROMOTIONS'
"Knowing when is the right time to buy this year is more difficult," said Edgar Dworsky, founder of Consumer World, who tracks holiday pricing. "With so many pre-Black Friday sales, there are no assurances the same deals will be offered again on the real Black Friday or that popular items will still be in stock."
Historically, Dworsky said, stores such as Kohl's, JC Penney and Macy's offered small kitchen appliances for as little as $5 after come combination of sales prices, percentage-off coupons and mail-in rebates, but many of those discounts have disappeared. Kohl's, for instance, is offering toasters, blenders, and electric frying pans for $9.99 without a rebate but with a coupon for 15% off this year, he said.
"I've definitely seen fewer promotions this year both in-store and online. The first two weeks of November usually bring some activity — though in recent years the discounts haven’t been very deep — but this year there’s been very little and much more full price," said Jessica Ramirez, who runs brand consultancy the Consumer Collective.
"When promotions do show up, they're spot promotions, meaning they aren't set and don't last long," she added.
While some retailers appear to be pulling back on promotions, Walmart is teasing some aggressive price cuts for Black Friday.
Some of Walmart's featured deals include an 85-inch TCL Roku TV, originally priced at $678, marked down to $498 for Black Friday, according to a Reuters review of the retailer’s website. Last year, Walmart highlighted a $120 discount on a 75-inch Vizio TV. This year's lineup also features a Blackstone outdoor grill offered at $157, reduced from its list price of $224.
(Reporting by Siddharth Cavale in New York; Editing by Lisa Jucca, Sayantani Ghosh and William Mallard)
